USD\/CHF, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en haftaki sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan toparlan\u0131p istikrar kazanmas\u0131yla pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Parite 0,8026 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,20 art\u0131da seyretti. Washington\u2019un yeni bir yapt\u0131r\u0131m hamlesi a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dikkat yeniden ABD-\u0130ran gerilimine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Hazine\u2019nin \u201cOperation Economic Outcast\u201d ad\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi program, ikincil yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kapsam\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fleterek n\u00fckleer, f\u00fcze, siber ve petrol a\u011flar\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 ki\u015fi, kurum ve gemiyi hedef ald\u0131. Tahran ise H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki di\u011fer g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlardan petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 durdurmaya y\u00f6nelik tehditler dahil olmak \u00fczere olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik zemin dolar lehine destek sa\u011flasa da ABD\u2019nin mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ve artan kamu borcuna ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. DXY, ge\u00e7en hafta 98,56 ile \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledikten sonra 99,05 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Temmuz ay\u0131 ABD istihdam ve enflasyon verilerinin zay\u0131f gelmesi, Fed\u2019in k\u0131sa vadede faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini azaltt\u0131. G\u00f6zler \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak PCE Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne ve ard\u0131ndan Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Jackson Hole\u2019daki konu\u015fmas\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. \u0130svi\u00e7re taraf\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE temmuzda %0,4 ile SNB\u2019nin %0-%2 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt band\u0131na yak\u0131n seyrederken, SNB Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00fcyesi Petra Tschudin, gerekirse negatif faizlerin yeniden kullan\u0131labilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, ham petrol al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklanarak enerji piyasas\u0131nda artabilecek oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatma tehdidi \u2014tarihsel olarak g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil ya da k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bir hat\u2014 enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Paraya yak\u0131n (near-the-money) Brent veya WTI call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 almak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken bu jeopolitik risk priminden faydalanmam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/CHF 0,8026 civar\u0131nda seyrederken ve \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonu %0,4 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir d\u00fczeydeyken, paritede uzun straddle opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in negatif faizlere geri d\u00f6n\u00fclebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ederken, ABD Hazine tahvili geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 ve jeopolitik gerilimler dolar \u00fczerinde z\u0131t y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkiler yarat\u0131yor. Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve yakla\u015fan y\u00fcksek etkili veriler, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda oynakl\u0131k al\u0131m\u0131na dayal\u0131 stratejileri daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc PCE enflasyon verisi ve cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Jackson Hole sempozyumu \u00f6ncesinde faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde de pozisyonlanmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemleri, zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verilerinin ard\u0131ndan yak\u0131n vadeli bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. K\u0131sa vadeli faiz opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6rece ucuz kalmaya devam ediyor; bu da Fed\u2019den gelebilecek \u015fahin s\u00fcrprizlere kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir korunma f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi 99,05 civar\u0131nda ve \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n dibini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra yatay seyrederken, k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz swaplar\u0131yla oranlar\u0131 sabitlemeyi tavsiye ediyoruz. Tarihsel olarak DXY\u2019nin psikolojik 100 seviyesinin alt\u0131na gerilemesi, agresif parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ile desteklenmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece \u00e7o\u011fu zaman daha uzun soluklu bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine i\u015faret eder. Yakla\u015fan enflasyon verilerinin piyasay\u0131 yeniden oynatmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, bu k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli dengelenme d\u00f6nemini portf\u00f6ylerimizi korumak i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Jeopolitik tansiyon USD\/CHF\u2019yi yukar\u0131 itiyor: Parite 0,8026\u2019da. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski dolar\u0131 desteklerken, bor\u00e7 endi\u015fesi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; PCE-Jackson Hole ve SNB negatif faiz sinyali oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53194","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t