Bessent bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z analist Dale J Pinkert\u2019in sundu\u011fu bir video b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcyle birlikte g\u00fcn\u00fcn ana piyasa oda\u011f\u0131 olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveleniyor. \u0130\u00e7erik, DXY endeksi \u00fczerinden ABD dolar\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki pozisyonlanmaya ili\u015fkin tart\u0131\u015fmalara at\u0131f yaparken; USDCAD\u2019in riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stergesi olarak kullan\u0131m\u0131 ve mevcut g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f rallisinin sona erdi\u011fine i\u015faret edebilecek ko\u015fullara dair yorumlar\u0131 da kaps\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca yar\u0131 iletkenlerde sert bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fa ve finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik ek kapsama dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Yaz\u0131, Pinkert\u2019in yazar bilgilerini vererek onu Chicago Mercantile Exchange\u2019in IOM b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn eski bir \u00fcyesi olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor ve piyasa \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinin CNBC d\u00e2hil finansal televizyon ve radyoda yay\u0131nland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn Bessent bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan kaynaklanabilecek yans\u0131malar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu geli\u015fme ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde (DXY) sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyebilir. Konsens\u00fcs h\u00e2l\u00e2 dolar lehine (bullish) olsa da, kalabal\u0131\u011f\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f pozisyonda yakaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz ve DXY\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish) bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, Hazine politikas\u0131yla ilgili \u00f6nemli duyurular \u00f6ncesinde kalabal\u0131kla\u015fan \u201cuzun dolar\u201d i\u015flemleri, \u00f6nceki piyasa d\u00f6ng\u00fclerindeki b\u00fcy\u00fck politika de\u011fi\u015fimlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ani %5\u2019lik dolar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine benzer \u015fekilde sert d\u00fczeltmelerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde k\u0131sa pozisyon olu\u015fturmay\u0131 veya sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2025 ve 2026 boyunca faizleri ayarlarken net faiz marjlar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, son raporlar bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde k\u00e2r b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yaln\u0131zca %1,8\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu temel zay\u0131fl\u0131k, finansal hisseleri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejiler i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir hedef haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131 iletken hisselerindeki son sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f, h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselen teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn bir da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m dalgas\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in \u00e7ip a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek endekslerde k\u0131sa vadeli ay\u0131 (bear) put spread\u2019leri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, yar\u0131 iletken endeksleri y\u00fcksek hacimde %2,5\u2019ten fazla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 gap\u2019li a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn takip eden yirmi g\u00fcnde genel piyasaya k\u0131yasla ortalama %4 daha zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
Metaller taraf\u0131nda, mevcut g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f rallisinin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc yitirip yitirmedi\u011fini anlamak i\u00e7in \u201cyorulma\u201d sinyallerini izlemeliyiz. Yaz boyunca %18\u2019lik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n genellikle artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 32\u201334 dolar band\u0131 civar\u0131ndaki \u00f6nemli psikolojik direnci test ediyor. Paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 yazarak veya koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak, olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme \u00f6ncesinde sermayeyi korumak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son olarak USDCAD paritesini, daha geni\u015f piyasa endi\u015fesini \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in kritik bir riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f barometresi olarak g\u00f6rmeliyiz. Bu paritede 1,3750 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir hareket, sistemik stres i\u00e7in bir uyar\u0131 i\u015fareti olacak ve daha geni\u015f hisse portf\u00f6ylerimizin hedge edilmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret edecektir. Bu \u00e7apraz kuru yak\u0131ndan izleyerek, endeks opsiyonlar\u0131yla savunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flemlerimizi \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek bir hassasiyetle zamanlayabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler Bessent\u2019te: DXY\u2019de ani ters k\u00f6\u015fe ve %5\u2019lik dolar d\u00fczeltmesi riski masada. Finanslarda short\/put, \u00e7ip hisselerinde ay\u0131 spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte yorulma; USDCAD 1,3750 \u00fczeri stres.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53191","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t