WTI, ge\u00e7en hafta %5\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckseldikten sonra Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden k\u0131s\u0131tlanan sevkiyat jeopolitik riskleri y\u00fcksek tutsa da fiyatlar geri \u00e7ekildi. Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda kontrat varil ba\u015f\u0131na 84,37 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,28 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. Piyasa ayr\u0131ca Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 beklenen \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken, Tahran Washington\u2019un ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 halinde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nin di\u011fer b\u00f6lgeleri \u00fczerinden petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 durdurabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Grafiklerde, WTI 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, y\u00fckseli\u015f 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ile s\u0131n\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00d6nceki al\u00e7alan trend \u00e7izgisi 85 dolar seviyesinde dirence d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; RSI 55\u2019e yak\u0131n seyrederken, MACD pozitif b\u00f6lgede kald\u0131, ancak ADX yakla\u015f\u0131k 19 seviyesindeydi. Diren\u00e7 85 dolar civar\u0131nda ve ard\u0131ndan 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 85,64 dolarda bulunuyor. Destek ise 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 81,37 dolarda, ard\u0131ndan 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 76,84 dolar ve 75 dolar civar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckselen trend \u00e7izgisinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; 68,00 dolar ise daha derin yatay destek seviyesi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimlerin tedarik zincirlerini tehdit etmesi nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda WTI ham petrol\u00fcnde artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tahran\u2019\u0131n, g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol\u00fcn ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 kritik bir bo\u011faz olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatma tehdidi s\u00fcrerken, ani bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 riski son derece y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor. Halihaz\u0131rda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ham petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n %90\u2019dan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n alan \u00c7in\u2019in, yakla\u015fan ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na nas\u0131l tepki verece\u011fini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz.<\/p>\n
Bu ikili nitelikteki jeopolitik riskler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na her iki y\u00f6nde de sert fiyat hareketlerinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle veya strangle stratejilerini kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Bu strateji, piyasada ani bir so\u011fuma ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde fiyatlar\u0131n 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 76,84 dolar civar\u0131na gerilemesine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flarken, arz kesintisi olmas\u0131 durumunda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli de yakalamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r. Tarihsel veriler, Ortado\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 gerilim d\u00f6nemlerinde petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni volatilitenin s\u0131kl\u0131kla %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da primin erken al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 stratejileri olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, agresif uzun pozisyonlara girmeden \u00f6nce 85,64 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) \u00fczerinde net bir k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n beklenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. WTI bu seviyeyi a\u015famaz ve geri \u00e7ekilirse, 81,37 dolardaki 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA deste\u011fi yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon olu\u015fturma f\u0131rsat\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu disiplinli yakla\u015f\u0131m, piyasa yeni yapt\u0131r\u0131m riskinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli belirsizli\u011fi fiyatlarken risk-getiri oran\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde avantajl\u0131 tutar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WTI, ge\u00e7en haftaki %5\u2019lik rallinin ard\u0131ndan 84,37 dolara gerilerken g\u00f6zler \u0130ran\u2019a yeni ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz tehdidi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Teknikte 85\u201385,64 diren\u00e7, 81,37\/76,84 destek; opsiyonda straddle\/strangle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53189","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t