USD\/JPY, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7en haftaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan istikrar kazanmas\u0131 ve Washington\u2019un \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ikincil yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 geni\u015fletmeye haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi. Parite 158,55 seviyesindeki g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dipten toparlanarak 159,13 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) ise 99,00 seviyesini yeniden a\u015fmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken 98,95 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Yeni, \u015fahin Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) beklentilerinden yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek bulabildi; mali endi\u015feler g\u00fcndemde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, BoJ\u2019un eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc piyasada geni\u015f kabul g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Son enflasyon verileri de bu beklentiyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. 18 Eyl\u00fcl BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde odak, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale endi\u015felerinden uzakla\u015f\u0131p temellere kayarken; y\u0131l sonuna ve 2027\u2019nin ba\u015flar\u0131na uzanan faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin merkez bankas\u0131 ileti\u015fimi yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Dolar\u2019daki \u00f6nceki gerileme, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uzun vadeli devlet tahvillerinde likidite destekli geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 geni\u015fletmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi; bu ad\u0131m, para birimini \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine itti. Piyasalar \u015fimdi Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fcl karar\u0131na dair sinyaller i\u00e7in \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD PCE Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne ve ard\u0131ndan cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131na odaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/JPY 159,13 civar\u0131nda seyrederken ve piyasa fiziksel m\u00fcdahaleden merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131na kayarken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n oynakl\u0131k odakl\u0131 stratejilere yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k, b\u00fcy\u00fck politika de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri \u00f6ncesinde genellikle y\u00fckselir; t\u0131pk\u0131 A\u011fustos 2024\u2019te yen carry-trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen %15\u2019lik oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi. Bu cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli straddle veya strangle pozisyonlar\u0131 almak, iki y\u00f6nde de ani k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 yakalamam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n
DXY endeksinin 99,00 seviyesini yeniden kazanma \u00e7abas\u0131 s\u00fcrerken ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda belirgin bir hareketlili\u011fe de haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak PCE enflasyon verisi zay\u0131f gelirse, tarihsel e\u011filimler Fed\u2019in faiz d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201de ge\u00e7ece\u011fi beklentisiyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha da gerileyebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, 155,00 destek seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) USD\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n\n
18 Eyl\u00fcl Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131na daha ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasan\u0131n ana belirleyicisinin bankan\u0131n ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmesi (forward guidance) olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 zaten g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, 2027\u2019ye uzanan faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u015fahin imalar agresif yen al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalarken prim riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in, bir ay vadeli bear put spread stratejisi olu\u015fturmay\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok mu geliyor? USD\/JPY 159\u2019a t\u0131rman\u0131rken g\u00f6zler \u0130ran yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve DXY\u2019de; BoJ\u2019un Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatland\u0131. PCE ve Jackson Hole \u00f6ncesi oynakl\u0131k artabilir; opsiyonlarda straddle\/put stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50020,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53188","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t