Haftan\u0131n g\u00fcndemi, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 01:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak RBA toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131na odaklan\u0131yor; bunu \u00e7ar\u015famba 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisi izliyor. Temmuz ay\u0131 i\u00e7in veri ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn, 2026 2. \u00e7eyre\u011fe ili\u015fkin ABD GSYH\u2019nin ikinci tahmininin %2,1\u2019den %1,5\u2019e gerilemesi bekleniyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 13:30 GMT\u2019de Kanada\u2019n\u0131n 2. \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisi gelecek; y\u0131ll\u0131k oran\u0131n %-0,1\u2019den %3,4\u2019e iyile\u015fmesi, \u00e7eyreklik g\u00f6stergenin ise %0,0\u2019dan %0,8\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ard\u0131ndan Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh, 14:00 GMT\u2019de Jackson Hole\u2019da konu\u015facak.<\/p>\n\n
USOIL, iki haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan gerilerken, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde art\u0131da kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 ekonomik olarak izole etmeye y\u00f6nelik plan\u0131 ile H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, Bab\u00fclmendep ve Karadeniz g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki s\u00fcregelen aksamalar\u0131n yaratabilece\u011fi arz riskleri bulunuyor. Talep taraf\u0131nda ise Sinopec, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda benzin t\u00fcketiminde yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, dizel kullan\u0131m\u0131nda %12 gerileme oldu\u011funu belirterek bask\u0131lara i\u015faret etti. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde petrol 50 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken 85 dolar civar\u0131ndaki %23,6 Fibonacci seviyesini test ediyor; Stokastik a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m sinyalleri ve 88 dolar civar\u0131ndaki \u00fcst Bollinger Band\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130zlenen seviyeler 88\u201390 dolar band\u0131 olurken, destekler 82 ve 79 dolar civar\u0131nda. XAUUSD, ABD Hazine\u2019sinin m\u00fcdahalesinin tahvil faizlerini ve dolar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesinin ard\u0131ndan ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.650 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; alt\u0131n destekli ETF\u2019ler ocaktan bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc haftal\u0131k giri\u015flere sahne olurken, Dalio alt\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %15\u2019e kadar \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131. Fiyat 4.488 dolardaki %38,2 Fibonacci\u2019nin \u00fczerine yerle\u015fti, 4.649 dolara yak\u0131n %50 seviyesini test ediyor; 4.810 dolara uzama ya da 4.490 dolara do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n\n
K\u00fcresel piyasalarda, kritik merkez bankas\u0131 g\u00fcncellemeleri ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerinin mevcut varl\u0131k de\u011ferlemelerini test etmeye haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131kl\u0131 bir haftaya giriyoruz. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD \u00c7ekirdek PCE endeksi ve 2. \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019nin ikinci tahmini\u2014%2,1\u2019den %1,5\u2019e yava\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor\u2014ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirlemede etkili olacak. Ayr\u0131ca, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un Jackson Hole sempozyumunda yapaca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fman\u0131n, tarihsel olarak faiz duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek varl\u0131klarda sert dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 nedeniyle cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fcksek volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel faiz d\u00f6ng\u00fclerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile birlikte so\u011fuyan enflasyon okumalar\u0131 genellikle merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 daha gev\u015fek bir politika duru\u015funa iter. Son veriler, tahvil piyasas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik son kamu m\u00fcdahalelerinin ard\u0131ndan Hazine tahvil getirilerinin gev\u015femeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun da getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 destekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu haftaki PCE enflasyonu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen ayl\u0131k %0,1 art\u0131\u015fla uyumlu gelirse, dolar \u00fczerinde ek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu durum, dolara kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlar i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir zemin sunabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Enerji piyasalar\u0131nda, ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin k\u00fcresel arz hatlar\u0131n\u0131 ciddi \u015fekilde k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131 nedeniyle USOIL\u2019i yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki sevkiyat darbo\u011fazlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %50\u2019lik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclse de, talep taraf\u0131nda \u00e7atlama i\u015faretleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; \u00c7inli Sinopec dizel kullan\u0131m\u0131nda %12\u2019lik sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bildirdi. Teknik olarak petrol 85 dolar civar\u0131ndaki %23,6 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesini test ediyor; ancak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesindeki momentum g\u00f6stergeleri nedeniyle, 90 dolara do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 sat\u0131n almadan \u00f6nce 82 dolara do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilme riski izlenmeli.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n, alt\u0131n destekli ETF\u2019lere g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc giri\u015fler ve para birimlerinde de\u011fer erozyonu endi\u015felerinin artmas\u0131yla ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.650 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, egemen bor\u00e7 risklerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla alt\u0131na %15\u2019e kadar a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilmesini savunurken, metal teknik olarak belirgin \u015fekilde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 4.649 dolar seviyesindeki kritik direncin izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; bu seviyenin net \u015fekilde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 4.810 dolara alan a\u00e7abilir, reddedilmesi halinde ise 4.490 dolara do\u011fru ge\u00e7ici bir geri \u00e7ekilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artar.<\/p>\n\n
Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc 2. \u00e7eyrek GSYH a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Kanada dolar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda da k\u0131sa vadeli \u00f6nemli bir i\u015flem f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6nceki %-0,1\u2019lik daralmadan %3,4\u2019e sert bir toparlanma g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir veri, \u00f6zellikle zay\u0131flayan ABD dolar\u0131yla e\u015fle\u015ftirildi\u011finde Loonie\u2019yi h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde destekleyebilir. Ayr\u0131ca haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda RBA toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131, AUD paritelerinde olas\u0131 volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in yak\u0131ndan takip edilmeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar kritik haftaya giriyor: RBA tutanaklar\u0131, ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE ve revize GSYH dolar\u0131 oynatabilir. Petrolde \u0130ran arz riski-talep \u00e7atla\u011f\u0131, alt\u0131nda 4.650 \u00fczeri ivme. Kanada GSYH ve Warsh konu\u015fmas\u0131 volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50139,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53184","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t