Royal Bank of Canada, Kanada ihracat\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yeni B\u00f6l\u00fcm 338 ABD tarifelerini de\u011ferlendirdi. S\u00f6z konusu tarifeler %50 seviyesinde belirlenirken, ABD\u2019ye Kanada ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %5\u2019ini olu\u015fturan \u00fcr\u00fcnleri kaps\u0131yor. \u00d6nlemler Kanada\u2019ya odakl\u0131\/yo\u011funla\u015fm\u0131\u015f \u015fekilde sunuluyor ve daha geni\u015f CUSMA ticari ili\u015fkilerine s\u0131\u00e7rama riski ta\u015f\u0131yan, g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi ad\u0131mlar\u0131nda yeniden t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveleniyor. RBC, verginin etkilenen Kanada mallar\u0131n\u0131 ABD pazar\u0131nda fiilen sat\u0131lamayacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde pahal\u0131 hale getirebilece\u011fini; ayn\u0131 zamanda tarife maliyetlerini azaltmak i\u00e7in Kuzey Amerika i\u00e7indeki ticaret ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden y\u00f6nlenmesine alan a\u00e7abilece\u011fini vurguluyor.<\/p>\n
Banka, plasti\u011fin, elektrikli makine-te\u00e7hizat\u0131n, mobilya ile ah\u015fap \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin ba\u015fl\u0131ca risk alt\u0131ndaki sekt\u00f6rler oldu\u011funu; etkinin Quebec, British Columbia ve Ontario\u2019da daha yo\u011fun hissedilmesinin beklendi\u011fini belirtiyor. RBC\u2019ye g\u00f6re tarife kaynakl\u0131 olumsuzluklar, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 say\u0131daki sanayi kolunda dar bir tabana yay\u0131l\u0131yor; bu nedenle rahatlat\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131mlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha hedefli kanal\u0131n maliye politikas\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca, h\u00fck\u00fcmet desteklerinin bu son tur sonras\u0131nda gelebilece\u011fine dair haberler de not ediliyor. Para politikas\u0131 taraf\u0131nda RBC, \u015fokun Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (BoC) faiz indirimine y\u00f6neltecek b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; enerji hari\u00e7 temel enflasyondaki yava\u015flaman\u0131n ise BoC\u2019nin bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131rmama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltti\u011fini ekliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin Kanada ihracat\u0131n\u0131n %5\u2019ine %50 gibi sert bir tarife uygulamas\u0131yla, Kanada Dolar\u0131 (CAD) i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede volatilite bekliyoruz. Bu tarifeler yakla\u015f\u0131k 25 milyar dolarl\u0131k ticaret kalemini hedefledi\u011finden, t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 CAD zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. Ekonomik etkinin Ontario, Quebec ve British Columbia\u2019da yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Kanada para birimi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle temel enflasyon %2 hedefi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde so\u011furken, faiz art\u0131rmaktan ziyade faizleri sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funa CORRA (Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average) vadeli i\u015flemleriyle veya al\u0131c\u0131 (receiver) swap pozisyonlar\u0131yla konumlanabilir. Tarihsel olarak, ticaret gerilimleri d\u00f6nemlerinde Kanada tahvil getirileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim g\u00f6sterme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fundan, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlar cazip bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ormanc\u0131l\u0131k, plastik ve elektrikli makine-te\u00e7hizat gibi belirli sekt\u00f6rler sert kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2rlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; bu da hisse senedi opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan f\u0131rsatlar yarat\u0131yor. %50 tarife, ABD\u2019ye ihracat\u0131 fiilen sat\u0131lamaz \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde pahal\u0131 hale getirdi\u011finden, b\u00fcy\u00fck Kanada sanayi ve ormanc\u0131l\u0131k \u015firketlerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, 2017\u2019deki ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda hedef al\u0131nan Kanada ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n hisse fiyatlar\u0131, tarife duyurular\u0131n\u0131 izleyen ay i\u00e7inde \u00e7ift haneli oranlarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bu tarifeler ac\u0131 verici olsa da, beklenen kamu maliyesi destekleri etkilenen sekt\u00f6rlerde darbeyi h\u0131zla s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu sanayi \u015firketlerine ili\u015fkin kurumsal kredi temerr\u00fct takaslar\u0131n\u0131 (CDS) izlemeli; zira olas\u0131 kamu destekleri, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha erken kredi spreadlerinin daralmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Kuzey Amerika i\u00e7inde ticaret ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden y\u00f6nlendi\u011fini yak\u0131ndan izlemek, sanayi hisselerinde k\u0131sa pozisyonlardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f zamanlamas\u0131nda kritik olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD\u2019nin Kanada ihracat\u0131n\u0131n %5\u2019ine getirdi\u011fi %50 B\u00f6l\u00fcm 338 tarifesi alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: CAD\u2019da oynakl\u0131k, se\u00e7ili sekt\u00f6rlerde bask\u0131; RBC\u2019ye g\u00f6re mali destek olas\u0131, BoC \u015fimdilik bekle-g\u00f6r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53183","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t