MUFG, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ABD\u2019ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 20 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 tutar\u0131ndaki ihracata getirilen yeni ABD tarifelerine verece\u011fi tepkinin, ilk harekete k\u0131yasla anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131n t\u0131rman\u0131p t\u0131rmanmayaca\u011f\u0131na daha fazla ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u00d6nlemleri engellemeye y\u00f6nelik m\u00fczakerelerin \u00e7\u00f6kmesinin ard\u0131ndan para birimi G10 emsallerinin gerisinde kal\u0131rken, misilleme riskinin orta vadeli FX fiyatlamas\u0131 ve daha geni\u015f Kanada piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n temel belirleyicisi oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Banka ayr\u0131ca, ihtilaf\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fcz kalmas\u0131 halinde petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015ften gelen deste\u011fin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 ilave bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r olarak i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n\n
Kanada\u2019dan ithal edilen 20 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 tutar\u0131ndaki \u00fcr\u00fcnlere %50 olarak belirlenen tarifeler, Cumartesi 00:01 itibar\u0131yla y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girdi ve bira, \u015farap, sert i\u00e7kiler, s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ile hokey ekipmanlar\u0131 dahil \u00fcr\u00fcnleri kaps\u0131yor; MUFG, etkilenen ticaretin Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ABD\u2019ye ihracat\u0131n\u0131n %5\u2019ine denk geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. MUFG, 2022\u2019den itibaren Covid sonras\u0131 d\u00f6neme bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda USD\/CAD\u2019in 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k swap faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan takip etti\u011fini, mevcut 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD-Kanada swap spreadinin ise paritenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 uzad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirtti. Buna g\u00f6re seviye 1,4000\u2019in biraz \u00fczerinde, ya da Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc spot kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,0 \u00fczerinde olabilir.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemleri yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak veya uzun vadeli forward kontratlara girerek derhal daha zay\u0131f bir Kanada Dolar\u0131 senaryosuna pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Bu hafta sonu y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe giren 20 milyar dolarl\u0131k Kanada mallar\u0131na %50 ABD tarifeleriyle birlikte Loonie, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir sarmala kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131lgan. 2018\u2019deki ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi gibi tarihsel \u00f6rnekler, ithalat cezalar\u0131n\u0131n kur de\u011ferini ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD-Kanada swap faiz fark\u0131na ili\u015fkin analizimiz, USD\/CAD spot kurunun \u015fu anda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 uzad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve 1,4000 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki kapan\u0131\u015fa g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %2\u2019lik bu fark, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltmeyi yakalamak isteyen opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in cazip bir taktik f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Piyasa s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeyi tamamen fiyatlamadan \u00f6nce bu de\u011ferleme bo\u015flu\u011fundan yararlanmak i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki ila d\u00f6rt haftada k\u0131sa vadeli vadeleri hedeflemeyi \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Ba\u015fbakan Carney\u2019nin ABD tarifelerine \u201cdolar\u0131na dolar\u201d kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fini taahh\u00fct etmesi nedeniyle, son derece oynak bir misilleme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131k\u00e7a olu\u015fabilecek keskin ve ani dalgalanmalardan faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle veya strangle opsiyon stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmeli. Bu volatilite stratejisi \u00f6zellikle kritik; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Brent gibi k\u00fcresel ham petrol g\u00f6stergeleri varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 76 dolarda zay\u0131f seyrederek, normalde Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyen emtia fiyat\u0131 tamponunu ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yeni ABD tarifeleri CAD\u2019i vurdu: MUFG, Loonie\u2019nin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc ilk \u015foktan \u00e7ok misilleme sarmal\u0131 belirler diyor. %50 tarife 20 milyar $\u2019\u0131 kaps\u0131yor; USD\/CAD 1,4000+ hedefleniyor. Opsiyonla zay\u0131fl\u0131k\/volatilite pozisyonu \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t