EUR\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 185,70 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrederek b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi. Yen, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Ulusal T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda hazirandaki %1,6\u2019dan %1,9\u2019a y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131ndan destek bulurken, taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon da %1,6\u2019dan %1,8\u2019e h\u0131zland\u0131. Piyasalar, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %82 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131 hemen \u00f6ncesinde %23 seviyesindeydi. Dikkatler, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc BoJ Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Ryozo Himino\u2019nun yapaca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmaya \u00e7evrildi. Bununla birlikte, yenin de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131; di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerle geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131, s\u00fcregelen mali endi\u015feler ve Orta Do\u011fu ile H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik riskler nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131yor; s\u00f6z konusu unsurlar carry trade i\u015flemlerini desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Euro cephesinde ise Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir politikaya gidece\u011fi beklentisi EUR\u2019yu destekliyor; ECB Watch arac\u0131 eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na %95 olas\u0131l\u0131k atfediyor. Deutsche Bank\u2019\u0131n analizine g\u00f6re ECB, mal fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son hareketlere gere\u011finden fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veriyor olabilir. Banka, temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,95 seviyesindeki \u00e7ekirdek mal enflasyonunu, d\u00fczenleyici de\u011fi\u015fikliklere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Alman ila\u00e7 fiyatlar\u0131nda ayl\u0131k %5,2\u2019lik tek seferlik s\u0131\u00e7ramaya ba\u011fl\u0131yor; buna kar\u015f\u0131n altta yatan momentumun daha zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa ve Enflasyon \u015eoku Momentumu endeksinin \u201ca\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131p\u0131rdad\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u201d i\u015faret ediyor. Banka, n\u00f6tr seviyenin \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131 %2,50 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor ve eyl\u00fclde 25 baz puanl\u0131k son bir ad\u0131mla politika faizinin nihai olarak %2,50\u2019ye ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te banka kredilerinin seyrini ve gelecek Per\u015fembe yay\u0131mlanacak ECB\u2019nin temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 izliyor.<\/p>\n
Hem ECB\u2019nin hem de BoJ\u2019un kritik eyl\u00fcl politika toplant\u0131lar\u0131na yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/JPY paritesinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite halihaz\u0131rda 185,70 civar\u0131nda yatay bir konsolidasyon s\u00fcrecindeyken, opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. BoJ\u2019un eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %82\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla birlikte son d\u00f6nemde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket eden JPY call opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Riskleri azaltmak i\u00e7in, daralan faiz farklar\u0131 nedeniyle carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik hedge yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Son makro veriler Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun temmuzda %1,8\u2019e h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da k\u0131sa vadede parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, ECB\u2019nin eyl\u00fclde 25 baz puanl\u0131k nihai faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %95 olarak i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, yerel piyasa tetikleyicilerini de takip etmesi gerekiyor; bunlar aras\u0131nda ECB\u2019nin temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131 hesaplar\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131 ve BoJ Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Ryozo Himino\u2019nun kritik konu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Himino\u2019nun para politikas\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir normalle\u015fmeye i\u015faret etmesi halinde, yen sert bir toparlanma g\u00f6sterebilir ve son d\u00f6nemdeki bant hareketi k\u0131r\u0131labilir. Ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi korumak i\u00e7in, uzun EUR\/JPY pozisyonlar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss seviyeleri belirlenmesinin kritik oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz Eyl\u00fcl r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131! EUR\/JPY 185,70\u2019te yatay; Japon T\u00dcFE art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yeni destek sa\u011flad\u0131. BoJ\u2019da %82, ECB\u2019de %95 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor. Eyl\u00fcl \u00f6ncesi volatilite, straddle\/hedge ve s\u0131k\u0131 stop g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49997,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53176","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t