ABD Hazine tahvilleri, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u201cbear steepening\u201d sonras\u0131 hafta sonuna do\u011fru daha yatay bir e\u011friye d\u00f6nd\u00fc; getiriler 30 y\u0131ll\u0131kta 2,3 baz puan, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131kta ise 4,7 baz puan y\u00fckseldi. \u00c7ok uzun vadede, i\u015flem ba\u015f\u0131na 4 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tavanla s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lan Hazine tahvili geri al\u0131m plan\u0131 sonras\u0131 ilk rallinin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc geri verilirken, A\u011fustos PMI s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f 3\u00c7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %3\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesiyle k\u0131sa vadeli faizler g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f kald\u0131. Bile\u015fik PMI 56 ile 52 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; hizmetler 56,8 ile \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck ederken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi PMI g\u00fcc\u00fc ECB\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tamamen fiyatlayan piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi; Bund getirileri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti ve e\u011fri genelinde hareketler 1 baz puan\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
FX taraf\u0131nda EUR\/USD 1,17 seviyesini yine a\u015famad\u0131 ve 1,168 civar\u0131nda kapand\u0131; ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 dolar endeksi 98,8\u2019de kapan\u0131rken USD\/JPY 158,95 seviyesindeydi. Sterlin sakin seyretti; EUR\/GBP ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki 0,854\u2019e k\u0131yasla 0,856 civar\u0131nda. Brent, \u0130ran\u2019la ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 planlanan bir a\u00e7\u0131klama ve bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 94,4 dolara y\u00fckseldi ve Temmuz ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ayr\u0131 olarak Kanada, ABD ile ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinden \u00e7ekildi; bunun tetiklemesiyle 20 milyar dolarl\u0131k mala %50 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi devreye al\u0131nd\u0131. \u00d6nceki \u015fartlar kota kapsam\u0131nda otomobillerde %15 ve \u00e7elik\/al\u00fcminyumda %25\u2019i i\u00e7eriyordu; Ottawa 8 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den itibaren \u201cdolar\u0131na dolar\u201d misilleme planl\u0131yor. USD\/CAD, yaz d\u00f6neminde 1,42\u2019den 1,3750\u2019ye gerileyen hareketin ard\u0131ndan 1,38\u2019de bulunuyor. Fitch, Polonya\u2019n\u0131n notunu negatif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle A- seviyesinde korudu; 2026\u2019da GSYH\u2019nin %6,9\u2019u ve 2027\u2019de %6,7\u2019si d\u00fczeyinde (\u015eubat\u2019taki %6,2 tahminine kar\u015f\u0131) b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor, ard\u0131ndan 2028\u2019de %6,1; borcun 2025\u2019te GSYH\u2019nin %59,7\u2019sinden 2028\u2019de %72,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu y\u0131l %3,3\u2019ten gelecek y\u0131l %2,9\u2019a yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle 56 ile beklentileri a\u015fan A\u011fustos PMI verisinin 3\u00c7\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %3\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesinin ard\u0131ndan, ABD getiri e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa ucunda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. E\u011frinin uzun ucunun, Hazine\u2019nin geri al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n neredeyse tamam\u0131n\u0131 geri vermesiyle birlikte, Jackson Hole Sempozyumu\u2019nda \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrprize haz\u0131rl\u0131k amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli faiz opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Warsh\u2019un Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc enflasyon risk primini bask\u0131layacak inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir plan sinyali verememesi halinde, uzun vadeli getirilerin yeni zirvelere k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k.<\/p>\n\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol ticaretine y\u00f6nelik agresif ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 tehdidi, Brent petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 94,4 dolarla bir ay\u0131n zirvesine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu momentumdan faydalanmak i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadeli Brent al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; \u00f6zellikle k\u00fcresel ticari ham petrol stoklar\u0131 h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k mevsimsel ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Hazine\u2019den bu gece a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ekonomik plan beklenildi\u011fi kadar sert olursa, petrol \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kolayl\u0131kla 100 dolar e\u015fi\u011fini test edebilir.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda, 8 Eyl\u00fcl tarife son tarihi \u00f6ncesinde opsiyonlar \u00fczerinden USD\/CAD\u2019de uzun pozisyon olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak 1,38 civar\u0131nda dengede tutsa da, ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ani \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve 20 milyar dolarl\u0131k Kanada men\u015feli \u00fcr\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik yakla\u015fan %50 ABD tarifeleri \u201cLoonie\u201d \u00fczerinde ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratacakt\u0131r. Tarihsel olarak, yak\u0131n ticaret ortaklar\u0131 aras\u0131nda bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131, misilleme ad\u0131mlar\u0131 resmile\u015fti\u011finde hedef para biriminde h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde %2 ila %3 de\u011fer kayb\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar.<\/p>\n\n
Avrupa pozisyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in, Polonya zlotisini (PLN) Euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda satmay\u0131 veya Polonya devlet tahvili riskine kar\u015f\u0131 kredi temerr\u00fct takas\u0131 (CDS) almay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fitch\u2019in Polonya\u2019n\u0131n A- notuna ili\u015fkin negatif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme karar\u0131, GSYH\u2019nin %6,9\u2019u seviyesinde \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir mali a\u00e7\u0131k ile 2028\u2019e kadar %72,7\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 beklenen bor\u00e7\/GSYH oran\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Ayr\u0131ca para piyasalar\u0131 ECB\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 zaten tamamen fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, Euro\u2019nun yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli 1,17 seviyesinde belirgin \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD tahvil e\u011frisi yatayla\u015ft\u0131; PMI s\u00fcrprizi k\u0131sa vadeli faizleri yukar\u0131 itti, Brent \u0130ran yapt\u0131r\u0131m korkusuyla 94,4$\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Strateji: k\u0131sa u\u00e7ta faiz, Brent call; USD\/CAD long, PLN short.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53169","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t