WTI Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc gerileyerek ge\u00e7en haftaki zirvelerine g\u00f6re %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kay\u0131p verdi ve 85,00 dolar b\u00f6lgesini test etti. ABD referans ham petrol\u00fc, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 hedef alan yeni bir ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131m paketinin ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 beklenirken 85,35 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu paketin Rusya veya \u00c7in\u2019e yay\u0131labilecek etkileri olabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scot Bessent, ABD\u2019nin bir hasma kar\u015f\u0131 \u201c\u015fimdiye kadar seferber edilmi\u015f en b\u00fcy\u00fck tek taarruzu\u201d haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi ve Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde \u201cekonomik D-g\u00fcn\u00fc\u201d olarak \u00e7er\u00e7evelenen bir bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6nlemleri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, \u00c7in, T\u00fcrkiye ve di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin Tahran ile ili\u015fkilerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini belirtirken, K\u00f6rfez\u2019den yap\u0131lan t\u00fcm petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 durdurmakla tehdit etti. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer ayr\u0131ca ABD ile i\u015f birli\u011finin \u201csava\u015f ilan\u0131\u201d olarak de\u011ferlendirilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunarak K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesi ve Avrupa \u00e7evresindeki riskleri art\u0131rd\u0131. Commerzbank, ham petrol stoklar\u0131 azal\u0131rken ve dizel stoklar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 kalmaya devam ederken petrolde geri \u00e7ekilmelerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; ilave stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinin \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunurken, Avrupa\u2019da gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n stoklar daha yava\u015f artsa bile y\u00fckselmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fini ifade etti. Ayr\u0131ca, \u0131s\u0131nma sezonuna girerken stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinin s\u00fcrmesi, Orta Do\u011fu ihracat\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ve Rusya\u2019da rafineri i\u015fleme hacminin de\u011fi\u015fmemesi halinde \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n daha da y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol 85,00 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik \u201cekonomik D-g\u00fcn\u00fc\u201d yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel arz\u0131 bozmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu da WTI \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir se\u00e7enek haline getiriyor. Tarihsel olarak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da ani jeopolitik t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flar ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde %10 ila %15 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; arz hatlar\u0131n\u0131n sekteye u\u011framas\u0131 halinde benzer bir tekrar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, \u00f6zellikle ABD ticari ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 420 milyon varile do\u011fru gerileyerek be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k mevsimsel ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesiyle s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan arz g\u00f6stergelerine de bakmak gerekiyor. Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) istikrarl\u0131 stok \u00e7ekili\u015fleri raporlamas\u0131yla, so\u011fuk hava etkisi devreye girmeden \u00f6nce bile fiziki piyasan\u0131n ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemciler, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken bu yap\u0131sal arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bull call spread pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Tahran\u2019\u0131n, d\u00fcnya g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131 olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 durdurma tehdidi nedeniyle, ani bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 riski belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir jeopolitik arz \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 maliyet-etkin bir korunma arac\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, K\u00f6rfez\u2019de ani t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flara kar\u015f\u0131 i\u015flem portf\u00f6ylerini korurken ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 sermaye ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutar.<\/p>\n
Buna ek olarak, k\u00fcresel stoklar\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyelerde oldu\u011fu distilat ve dizel vadeli i\u015flemlerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Avrupa\u2019da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gaz ve dizel stoklar\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu ihracat\u0131nda ya da Rusya rafineri i\u015fleme hacminde ya\u015fanacak ilave aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn marjlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131na neden olabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bunu crack spread i\u015flemleriyle de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6zellikle \u0131s\u0131tma ya\u011f\u0131 veya dizel t\u00fcrevlerinde uzun pozisyon al\u0131p ham petrolde k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7arak geni\u015fleyen rafineri marjlar\u0131ndan faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WTI 85 dolar testinde; ABD\u2019nin \u201cekonomik D-g\u00fcn\u00fc\u201d \u0130ran yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla arz \u015foku korkusu t\u0131rman\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz tehdidi ve d\u00fc\u015fen stoklar volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131rken call opsiyon, bull spread ve crack spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53167","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t