{"id":53165,"date":"2026-08-24T08:27:44","date_gmt":"2026-08-24T08:27:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/zayiflayan-abd-enflasyonu-fed-beklentilerini-torpulerken-iran-kaynakli-riskler-surerken-altin-uc-ayin-zirvesine-cikti\/"},"modified":"2026-08-24T08:27:44","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T08:27:44","slug":"zayiflayan-abd-enflasyonu-fed-beklentilerini-torpulerken-iran-kaynakli-riskler-surerken-altin-uc-ayin-zirvesine-cikti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/zayiflayan-abd-enflasyonu-fed-beklentilerini-torpulerken-iran-kaynakli-riskler-surerken-altin-uc-ayin-zirvesine-cikti\/","title":{"rendered":"Zay\u0131flayan ABD enflasyonu Fed beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fclerken, \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 riskler s\u00fcrerken alt\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), 4.650 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak May\u0131s ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131 ve ge\u00e7en hafta 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019nin \u00fczerindeki hareketini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Talep, Temmuz ABD enflasyon verilerinin daha zay\u0131f gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadeli ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerinin yumu\u015famas\u0131yla desteklenirken, ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrini korudu ve dolar (USD) \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti. Piyasalar 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin sabit tutulmas\u0131na daha yak\u0131n dururken, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (US Department of the Treasury) Eyl\u00fcl itibar\u0131yla uzun vadeli devlet tahvillerinde geri al\u0131m (buyback) operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 en az iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n ihra\u00e7 ba\u015f\u0131na 4 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fabilece\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n

Buna ra\u011fmen, fiyatlama y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Politika sinyalleri i\u00e7in g\u00f6zler \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD PCE Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne ve Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole Sempozyumu konu\u015fmas\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. Jeopolitik risk de g\u00fcndemde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor: ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in yeni \u0130ran yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 beklenirken, \u0130ran H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve Basra K\u00f6rfezi \u00fczerinden petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 durdurabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Teknik tarafta RSI 71,77 seviyesinde ve MACD pozitif kal\u0131yor; diren\u00e7 4.684,43 ve 4.891,38 dolar civar\u0131nda, destekler ise 4.521,97, 4.516,88, 4.407,86 ve 4.293,75 dolar seviyelerinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Teknik Momentum ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, alt\u0131n\u0131n kritik 4.615\u20134.620 dolar band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerindeki k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 konsolide etti\u011fi bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te temkinli iyimser bir duru\u015f benimsemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Teknik momentum g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc olsa da G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 71,77\u2019de bulunmas\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine i\u015faret ediyor ve k\u0131sa vadeli bir geri \u00e7ekilme riski do\u011furuyor. Bu ortamda, bir sonraki ana diren\u00e7 seviyesi olan 4.684,43 dolar\u0131 hedeflerken pe\u015fin \u00f6denen primi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadleri (bull call spread) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n

Makroekonomik Geli\u015fmeler, Jeopolitik ve Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n

K\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin tarihsel olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden ABD\u2013\u0130ran aras\u0131nda artan jeopolitik gerilim, y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde oynakl\u0131k riski yarat\u0131yor. \u0130hracatta kesinti ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sert y\u00fckselerek k\u00fcresel enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden alevlendirebilir ve g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 aniden g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu olas\u0131 ani rejim de\u011fi\u015fimine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, keskin ve beklenmedik fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan \u015fekilde hem alt\u0131n hem de ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) straddle stratejileri kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD PCE enflasyon verisi ve Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenen Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde pozisyonlanmaya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131, Fed politikas\u0131ndaki \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fim d\u00f6nemlerinde haftal\u0131k ortalama %2\u2013%3\u2019l\u00fck oynakl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 g\u00f6sterebildi\u011finden, teminats\u0131z (uncovered) k\u0131sa opsiyon ta\u015f\u0131maktan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bunun yerine mevcut uzun pozisyonlarda k\u00e2r realize edilebilir veya \u015fahin s\u00fcrprize kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 korumak amac\u0131yla koruyucu sat\u0131m (protective put) al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n

K\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ya da daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar kaynakl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir d\u00fczeltme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse, 4.516\u20134.521 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni uzun pozisyonlar i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir giri\u015f b\u00f6lgesi olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu alan, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) taraf\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekleniyor ve ge\u00e7mi\u015fte b\u00fcy\u00fck bo\u011fa piyasalar\u0131nda g\u00fcvenilir bir taban i\u015flevi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu seviyelerden uzun vadeli vadeli i\u015flem (long futures) kontratlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131p 4.407 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) koymak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda risk-getiri dengesini optimize edecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda ralli s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: XAU\/USD 4.650 \u00fcst\u00fcnde, dolar zay\u0131f, getiriler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Piyasa Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de pas beklerken y\u0131l sonuna kadar art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %70+. PCE\/Jackson Hole kritik; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50128,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t