Rupi, haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sermaye giri\u015fleri ve Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya y\u00f6nelik operasyonlar\u0131 pariteyi destekledi. Ham petrol, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik beklenen ABD ad\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde k\u00e2r realizasyonlar\u0131yla gerileyince bask\u0131 azald\u0131; ancak Washington\u2019un daha sert yapt\u0131r\u0131m sinyali vermesi ve \u0130ran ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki kesintilerin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 trafi\u011fini tarihsel ortalamalar\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda tutmas\u0131, petrol\u00fcn yeniden y\u00fckselme riskini canl\u0131 tuttu. Bu durum, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck ham petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan Hindistan i\u00e7in kritik bir hassasiyet. RBI, \u00f6demeler dengesi tedbirleri kapsam\u0131nda Haziran\u2019dan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k 73 milyar dolar biriktirdi\u011fini, bunun da d\u00f6viz rezervlerini rekor seviyelere yak\u0131n tuttu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hindistan hisseleri, art arda iki haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan hafif art\u0131da a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; ge\u00e7en hafta Nifty 50 %0,5, BSE Sensex ise %0,6 geriledi. USD\/INR, ABD Hazinesi\u2019nin uzun vadeli bor\u00e7 geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 en az iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n 4 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine geni\u015fleyebilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyretti. Teknik tarafta USD\/INR 95,70 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 9 d\u00f6nemlik EMA olan 95,6251\u2019in ve 50 d\u00f6nemlik EMA olan 95,4515\u2019in \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 52 seviyesine yak\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yatay bantta ancak y\u00fcksek hassasiyetle hareket eden bir USD\/INR piyasas\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Teknik e\u011filim, 50 d\u00f6nemlik EMA olan 95,45\u2019in \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nd\u0131k\u00e7a hafif pozitif olsa da, yo\u011fun RBI m\u00fcdahalesinin belirgin bir yukar\u0131 hareketi muhtemelen s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Bu ortamdan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, paritenin 95,70 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda konsolide oldu\u011fu senaryoda prim geliri elde etmeye y\u00f6nelik k\u0131sa strangle veya iron condor opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu yatay bant senaryosuna y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck tehdit, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 kesintileri nedeniyle enerji maliyetlerinde ani bir s\u0131\u00e7rama ya\u015fanmas\u0131d\u0131r. Hindistan, ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k %85\u2019ini ithal ediyor ve ge\u00e7mi\u015f piyasa verileri, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 %10\u2019luk bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n Hindistan\u2019\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131k dengesini GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5\u2019i kadar bozabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu riske kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla, USD\/INR k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n Brent petrolde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge edilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz. Brent son d\u00f6nemde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80-85 dolar band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yurti\u00e7i faiz cephesinde, RBI\u2019nin parasal gev\u015femeden uzakla\u015f\u0131p daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa y\u00f6nelmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. Analistlerin ufukta olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na i\u015faret etmesiyle, k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fen faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnden faydalanmak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli Hindistan rupisi gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131nda (OIS) uzun pozisyonlara ge\u00e7mesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan ABD dolar\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fi yap\u0131sal bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. ABD Hazinesi\u2019nin bor\u00e7 geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 4 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine geni\u015fletme a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, uzun vadeli ABD tahvil getirilerini kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 hedefliyor; bu da dolar\u0131n cazibesini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan bir Hindistan merkez bankas\u0131 ile getirileri s\u0131n\u0131rlanan bir ABD piyasas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, 96,00 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 ge\u00e7ici y\u00fckseli\u015flerde INR al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih etti\u011fimiz taktik yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rupi yatay: sermaye giri\u015fi ve RBI m\u00fcdahalesi USD\/INR\u2019yi tutuyor. Petrol\/H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski yeniden bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Strateji: 95,70 \u00e7evresinde k\u0131sa strangle\/condor; Brent OTM call ile hedge. OIS\u2019te long.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53164","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t