{"id":53163,"date":"2026-08-24T07:26:38","date_gmt":"2026-08-24T07:26:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/dolar-endeksi-hazine-tahvil-geri-alimlari-ve-irana-yonelik-yaptirimlarin-gundemde-olmasiyla-uc-ayin-en-dusuk-seviyelerine-yakin-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-08-24T07:26:38","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T07:26:38","slug":"dolar-endeksi-hazine-tahvil-geri-alimlari-ve-irana-yonelik-yaptirimlarin-gundemde-olmasiyla-uc-ayin-en-dusuk-seviyelerine-yakin-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dolar-endeksi-hazine-tahvil-geri-alimlari-ve-irana-yonelik-yaptirimlarin-gundemde-olmasiyla-uc-ayin-en-dusuk-seviyelerine-yakin-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar endeksi, Hazine tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n g\u00fcndemde olmas\u0131yla \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda 98,80 civar\u0131na gerileyerek, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uzun vadeli tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rma plan\u0131n\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n sindirmesiyle \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n dip seviyeleri yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyretti. Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, y\u00fckselen 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak amac\u0131yla, her i\u015flemde geri al\u0131m tutar\u0131n\u0131 4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kararak iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karacaklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; bu ad\u0131m, ABD\u2019nin mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Son enflasyon verileri \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyrederken, baz\u0131 ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) yetkilileri fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair daha net kan\u0131t g\u00f6rmek istiyor; CME FedWatch, bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin %41,0 olarak fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun bir ay \u00f6nceki %47 seviyesinden geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Bessent\u2019in, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Tahran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 \u015fimdiye kadar at\u0131lm\u0131\u015f en sert ekonomik ad\u0131m olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 duyurmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar hakk\u0131nda bir bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczenlemesi bekleniyor. Bu durum, USD i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin yeniden canlanabilece\u011fi ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Scotiabank stratejistleri, uzun vadeli faizleri bask\u0131lama \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n Dolar\u2019\u0131 mali endi\u015felere kar\u015f\u0131 daha duyarl\u0131 hale getirdi\u011fini savunuyor. Fed\u2019den Musalem, \u00e7ekirdek e\u011filimde enflasyonun %2,5-%3 band\u0131nda oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek %2 hedefine ula\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu belirtti. Bu arada FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi 0,34 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 132,42\u2019ye inerken, FXS Speechtracker skoru 7\/10 oldu. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde DXY, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA) alt\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor; RSI (14) 30\u2019a yak\u0131n. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 99,70, 99,75 ve 101,00\u2019de; destek ise 98,50\u2019de izleniyor.<\/p>\n

Piyasa Tepkileri ve Teknik Analiz<\/h3>\n

ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY), 99,00 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na sarkarak 98,80 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Bu hareketin arkas\u0131nda, ABD\u2019nin mali politikalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik artan huzursuzluk bulunuyor. Hazine\u2019nin uzun vadeli tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 i\u015flem ba\u015f\u0131na 4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kararak iki kat\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yan agresif hamlesi faizleri s\u0131n\u0131rlasa da dolar \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 belirginle\u015ftiriyor. T\u00fcrev piyasalarda i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, dolar\u0131n bu t\u00fcr m\u00fcdahaleci politikalar\u0131n y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve k\u0131sa rallilerde net sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 olu\u015ftu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Tarihsel olarak, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli federal bor\u00e7 geni\u015flemeleri\u2014ABD ulusal borcunun 2026\u2019da 39 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi bir senaryoda\u2014faizleri bask\u0131lay\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131mlarla bir arada oldu\u011funda dolar\u0131 yap\u0131sal olarak zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 1940\u2019larda benzer getiri e\u011frisi kontrol\u00fc uygulamalar\u0131na ve 2008 sonras\u0131 niceliksel geni\u015fleme (QE) d\u00f6nemine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, tahvil faizlerinin bask\u0131lanmas\u0131n\u0131n zamanla kur \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kap\u0131 aralad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemlerde, \u00f6zellikle DXY\u2019nin 98,50\u2019deki alt Bollinger band\u0131 civar\u0131nda gezinmesi nedeniyle, sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) veya k\u0131sa vadeli kontratlarda short pozisyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Jeopolitik Riskler ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Bununla birlikte, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan jeopolitik gerilimlerin yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi ani g\u00fcvenli liman al\u0131mlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 bu negatif senaryoyu dengelemek gerekiyor. Scott Bessent\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik e\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla, olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc bir anda tersine \u00e7evirebilir. Bu jeopolitik s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in collar stratejileri veya DXY\u2019de \u201cparaya yak\u0131n\u201d (near-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Piyasa bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %41 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 fiyatlasa da, Musalem gibi Fed yetkililerinden gelen \u015fahin tonlamalar enflasyonun %2,5 ile %3 aras\u0131nda kat\u0131 (sticky) kalmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Teknik olarak endeks, 99,70\u2019teki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131; bu seviye, zarar-kes (stop-loss) belirlemede kritik bir diren\u00e7 konumunda. \u0130\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, 99,75\u2019in hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 stop seviyeleri olu\u015fturmas\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 98,50 deste\u011finin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 hedeflemesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

DXY 98,80\u2019de \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n dibine yak\u0131n: Hazine\u2019nin 4 milyar $\u2019l\u0131k agresif tahvil geri al\u0131m\u0131 mali endi\u015feleri art\u0131r\u0131p dolar\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Fed art\u0131\u015f ihtimali %41; \u0130ran yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00fcvenli limanla ters r\u00fczg\u00e2r yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53163","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t