EUR\/USD, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lar\u0131n geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 en az iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yumu\u015famas\u0131yla Asya saatlerinde 1,1680 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek y\u00fckseli\u015fini d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc seansa ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Yetkililer, getirilerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan hamle kapsam\u0131nda al\u0131mlar\u0131n 4 milyar dolar\u0131n da \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini belirtti. Ancak Dolar\u2019a destek, ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla g\u00fcvenli liman talebinden gelebilir; Tahran, yakla\u015fan ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 reddederken Washington\u2019un yeni ad\u0131mlar atmas\u0131 halinde \u201cdeprem benzeri\u201d bir misilleme uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n\n
Euro, enflasyon dinamikleri ve ECB politikas\u0131 beklentilerinden destek buldu. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde bir y\u0131ll\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyon beklentisi haziranda %3\u2019ten %2,9\u2019a geriledi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n ECB\u2019nin %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Fazla likiditenin azalmas\u0131yla birlikte yap\u0131sal LTRO\u2019lara do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir kayma da izleniyor; tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi, 12 ayl\u0131k vadenin olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve ihalelerin sabit faizli, tam tahsisat\u0131n yerini alabilece\u011fi konu\u015fuluyor. D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 yap\u0131s\u0131nda Euro, 2022\u2019de i\u015flemlerin %31\u2019ini olu\u015ftururken ortalama g\u00fcnl\u00fck ciro 2,2 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi; EUR\/USD t\u00fcm i\u015flemlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019unu temsil ederek %4 ile EUR\/JPY, %3 ile EUR\/GBP ve %2 ile EUR\/AUD\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcnde yer al\u0131yor. ECB y\u0131lda sekiz toplant\u0131da politika belirlerken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6rt ekonomisi toplam \u00fcretimin %75\u2019ini olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n\n
EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1680 seviyesini test etti\u011fi bu d\u00f6nemde, kar\u015f\u0131t maliye politikalar\u0131 ve jeopolitik risklerin etkisiyle volatilitenin artmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 4 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kacak \u015fekilde iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karma taahh\u00fcd\u00fc, Hazine getirileri \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratarak Greenback\u2019i ge\u00e7ici olarak zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bu e\u011filimden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, \u00f6zellikle Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon beklentileri %2,9\u2019da yap\u0131\u015fkan kal\u0131rken, ek yukar\u0131 momentumdan yararlanmak amac\u0131yla EUR\/USD y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Bununla birlikte, t\u0131rmanan ABD-\u0130ran jeopolitik gerilimine ba\u011fl\u0131 ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olunmal\u0131. Tarihsel veriler, ani askeri veya siyasi t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flar\u0131n h\u0131zla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; dolar h\u00e2l\u00e2 k\u00fcresel rezervlerde bask\u0131n konumda. Uzun Euro pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ani riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u0131l i\u00e7i ortalamalar\u0131na yak\u0131n seyreden EUR\/USD ima edilen volatilitesinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda geni\u015flemesini bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, her iki y\u00f6nde sert hareketlerden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefleyen uzun strangle stratejileriyle bu ortamdan yararlanabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, tek bir piyasa y\u00f6n\u00fcne ba\u011flanmadan b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde fazla likidite azal\u0131rken ECB\u2019nin yeni bir yap\u0131sal Uzun Vadeli Refinansman Operasyonlar\u0131 (LTRO) \u00e7er\u00e7evesine do\u011fru ilerleyi\u015fi izlenmeli. Euro B\u00f6lgesi fazla likiditesi zirvesinden belirgin \u015fekilde gerilemi\u015f durumda ve fonlama ko\u015fullar\u0131 kademeli olarak s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bankalararas\u0131 piyasadaki de\u011fi\u015fen likidite dinamiklerine pozisyon almak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli Euro k\u0131sa faiz (\u20acSTR) vadeli i\u015flemlerini de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz hamle: ABD Hazine\u2019nin geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 ikiye katlamas\u0131 Dolar\u2019\u0131 yumu\u015fat\u0131nca EUR\/USD Asya\u2019da 1,1680\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131. ECB-enflasyon deste\u011fi s\u00fcrerken ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi g\u00fcvenli limanla dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53154","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t