Br\u00fct ABD federal borcu 40 trilyon dolar e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015farak bor\u00e7\/GSYH oran\u0131 gibi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik g\u00f6stergelerine ilgiyi yeniden art\u0131rd\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan piyasalar, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7 geri al\u0131m politikas\u0131n\u0131 beklenmedik \u015fekilde geni\u015fletmesiyle sars\u0131ld\u0131; Bitcoin, Ethereum, k\u0131ymetli madenler ve yabanc\u0131 para birimleri \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k diren\u00e7leri a\u015farken, uzun vadeli Hazine tahvilleri yaln\u0131zca bir seansl\u0131k ralli yapt\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel hisse senedi endeksleri haftay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatt\u0131. K\u00fcresel hisse senedi g\u00f6stergeleri 20\u201321 A\u011fustos\u2019ta taban olu\u015fturmadan \u00f6nce d\u00fczeltme evresine girerken, alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f s\u0131ras\u0131yla May\u0131s ve Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n\n
Yaz\u0131 ayr\u0131ca d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel i\u015faretlere de dikkat \u00e7ekiyor: Bitcoin\u2019in Ocak ve May\u0131s zirvelerini birle\u015ftiren d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini k\u0131rmas\u0131, 1 Temmuz\u2019da d\u00f6rt y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6ng\u00fc dibine uyumlu olarak ele al\u0131n\u0131yor; Ekim \u00b1 iki ay penceresi \u00f6ncesinde, tipik d\u00f6rt ayl\u0131k aral\u0131\u011fa k\u0131yasla sekiz ayl\u0131k bir tolerans (orb) m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Alt\u0131n\u0131n 47 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn, 30 Haziran ve 16 Temmuz\u2019daki 3955 civar\u0131ndaki \u00e7ifte diplerle hizaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Tutulma sezonu 12\u201327 A\u011fustos olarak tarihleniyor ve Ortalama Ay Kuzey D\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn 18 A\u011fustos 2026\u20137 Mart 2028 aras\u0131nda Kova burcunda oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor; ayr\u0131ca 10 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e y\u00f6nelik ek bir zaman referans\u0131 veriliyor ve \u00f6nceki bir Kova-d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc \u00f6rne\u011fi olarak 7 Ocak 2008\u201326 Temmuz 2009 d\u00f6nemi an\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Br\u00fct ABD borcunun resmen 40 trilyon dolar e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015fmas\u0131yla piyasalarda belirgin bir k\u0131r\u0131lma g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Hazine\u2019nin bor\u00e7 geri al\u0131m operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz bi\u00e7imde geni\u015fletmesi, alt\u0131n, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ve Bitcoin\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli tetikleyerek bu varl\u0131klar\u0131 uzun s\u00fcredir a\u015f\u0131lamayan diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, yabanc\u0131 para birimleri ve k\u0131ymetli madenlerin bu agresif likidite enjeksiyonundan faydalanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi nedeniyle ani para birimi de\u011fer kayb\u0131 (debasement) temal\u0131 hamlelere kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki ila \u00fc\u00e7 haftada y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k bekliyoruz; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, tarihsel olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck parasal m\u00fcdahale d\u00f6nemlerinde s\u0131\u00e7rayan VIX\u2019i yak\u0131ndan izlemesini gerektiriyor. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, 2008 finansal krizi s\u0131ras\u0131nda benzer \u00f6l\u00e7ekte radikal geri al\u0131m ve gev\u015feme programlar\u0131 devreye al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda VIX, nihayetinde 80,86 ile tarihi zirveye t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ani piyasa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son derece \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez bir faza girerken, VIX opsiyonlar\u0131 gibi oynakl\u0131k t\u00fcrevlerini yak\u0131ndan takip etmek kritik olacak.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n, kilit diren\u00e7lerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak spot fiyatlar\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131yla yeniden rekor b\u00f6lgesine y\u00f6nelmesini sa\u011flad\u0131. Bu arada Bitcoin\u2019in \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trend \u00e7izgisinin \u00fczerine k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, ana d\u00f6rt y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn 1 Temmuz\u2019da dip yapm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Kripto ve metallerdeki bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve h\u0131zl\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m trendlerinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle veya call spread gibi opsiyon stratejilerinin de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Emtia ve kripto y\u00fckselirken, k\u00fcresel hisse endeksleri yorgunluk sinyalleri veriyor ve sert, ani geri \u00e7ekilmelerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilir. Tarihsel olarak Ay Kuzey D\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc Kova\u2019ya ge\u00e7ti\u011finde\u2014ki \u015fimdi de b\u00f6yle\u2014k\u00fcresel hisse piyasalar\u0131, B\u00fcy\u00fck Durgunluk s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen %50\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe benzer \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ani sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, hisse portf\u00f6ylerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc put opsiyonlar\u0131 veya k\u0131sa vadeli\/future k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131yla hedge etmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca tar\u0131msal emtialara da bak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; artan s\u0131cakl\u0131klar ve de\u011fi\u015fen mevsimsellik kal\u0131plar\u0131 \u015fimdiden tah\u0131l fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itiyor. Tarihsel olarak, jeopolitik gerilimle birle\u015fen s\u0131k\u0131 arz dinamikleri yaz sonuna do\u011fru tar\u0131m vadeli i\u015flemlerinde ani %15\u2013%20 s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmadan \u00f6nce m\u0131s\u0131r, bu\u011fday veya soya fasulyesi vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun call pozisyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturarak bundan faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD borcu 40 trilyonu a\u015f\u0131nca piyasada k\u0131r\u0131lma: Hazine geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 geni\u015fledi, Bitcoin-alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ve FX diren\u00e7 k\u0131rd\u0131. Hisseler t\u00f6kezlerken VIX ve d\u00f6ng\u00fcler alarm veriyor; volatilite\/hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50121,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53138","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t