USD\/CHF Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,07 y\u00fckselerek 0,8010\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, ancak ABD tahvil getirilerinin \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015fmesinin ard\u0131ndan haftay\u0131 yine de %1,49\u2019un \u00fczerinde kay\u0131pla kapatt\u0131. Hareket, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvilde y\u00fckselen getirileri s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n\n
Fiyat hareketi konsolidasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc sergiliyor; parite 0,8086\u2019daki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ile 0,7976\u2019daki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda, RSI ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyre d\u00f6nd\u00fc. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 tarafta ilk destek 0,8000\u2019de; bunun alt\u0131nda odak 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya, ard\u0131ndan 20 A\u011fustos dip seviyesi 0,7949\u2019a ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 0,7933\u2019e kay\u0131yor; bu seviyenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 0,7900\u2019a alan a\u00e7abilir. USD\/CHF\u2019in toparlanmas\u0131 halinde diren\u00e7 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da, ard\u0131ndan 0,8100\u2019da; sonras\u0131nda 0,8200 \u00f6ncesinde 13 A\u011fustos zirvesi 0,8147 izleniyor. Haftal\u0131k performans tablolar\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 maj\u00f6r para birimleri aras\u0131nda lider konumda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n\n
Paritenin 0,8000 seviyesi \u00fczerindeki tutunma \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n USD\/CHF paritesine ay\u0131 e\u011filimiyle yakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,8010\u2019a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fclse de, ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerindeki gerileme ivmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak paritenin ge\u00e7en haftay\u0131 %1,49\u2019un \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle tamamlamas\u0131na neden oldu. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 kontrol\u00fc elinde tuttu\u011funa i\u015faret etmesi nedeniyle, \u015fimdilik agresif uzun pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, spot fiyat\u0131n 0,8000 psikolojik e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na net bi\u00e7imde sarkmas\u0131 durumunda k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak veya bear call spread kurmak olduk\u00e7a etkili olabilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kal\u0131c\u0131 bir hareketin 0,7976\u2019daki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) ile 20 A\u011fustos dibi 0,7949\u2019u hedeflemesi muhtemel. Bu seviyelerin de k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde, kritik 0,7933\u2019teki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ani bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli kal\u0131nmal\u0131; bu senaryoda 0,8086\u2019daki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA \u00fczerinde koruyucu al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge edilmesi gerekebilir. Bu bariyerin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 0,8100\u2019a ve potansiyel olarak 13 A\u011fustos zirvesi 0,8147\u2019ye do\u011fru bir ralli tetikleyebilir. Bu kritik hareketli ortalamalar \u00e7evresinde k\u0131sa delta pozisyonlar\u0131nda stop-loss tetikleyicilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131, risk y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte getirilerin s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr; bu durum, 2023 sonlar\u0131nda frang\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck kur hareketlerine benzer. Mevcut tabloda ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin %3,80 seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesi, getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 \u0130svi\u00e7re para birimi lehine daraltarak bu e\u011filimi destekliyor. Bu daha geni\u015f makroekonomik de\u011fi\u015fimin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca USD\/CHF\u2019teki toparlanma giri\u015fimlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CHF\u2019te sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: 0,8010\u2019a tepkiye ra\u011fmen hafta %1,49 ekside. 0,8000 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 0,7976-0,7949-0,7933 hedef. 0,8086 \u00fcst\u00fc 0,8100-0,8147 diren\u00e7; d\u00fc\u015fen ABD faizleri frang\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t