DBS, Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoK) a\u011fustos toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %3,00\u2019e y\u00fckseltece\u011fini; bununla birlikte GSYH ve T\u00dcFE tahminlerini de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bankan\u0131n 2026 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ard\u0131ndan %2,6\u2019dan yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,5\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Enflasyon varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 da yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekilebilir; 2027 T\u00dcFE tahmini %2,3\u2019ten %3,0\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckselebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyrediyor. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8\u2019e gerileyerek hazirandaki %3,2\u2019nin alt\u0131na inerken, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %2,5\u2019ten %2,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi; konut fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da %2,6\u2019dan %2,7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bununla birlikte KRW\u2019nin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 ve KOSPI oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar nedeniyle \u201c\u015fahin pas\u201d senaryosu da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn; politika a\u011fustosta de\u011fi\u015fmeden b\u0131rak\u0131l\u0131rken ekimde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 se\u00e7ene\u011fi masada tutulabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015fan faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlara %3,00\u2019e y\u00f6nelik y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u0130lk yar\u0131da %3,8\u2019lik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesi, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma i\u00e7in geni\u015f bir alana sahip oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u015fahin kaymaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, getirilerin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etmeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesiyle \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k Kore Hazine Tahvili (KTB) vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Kore Wonu son d\u00f6nemde belirgin g\u00fc\u00e7lenme g\u00f6stererek USD\/KRW kurunu 1.310 seviyesine do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Devam eden de\u011ferlenmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli KRW al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya USD\/KRW vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon \u00f6neriyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131 bu ay \u201c\u015fahin pas\u201d tercih etse bile, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde i\u015faretlenmesi Won\u2019u desteklemeye devam edecektir.<\/p>\n\n
Hisse piyasalar\u0131nda da oynakl\u0131k art\u0131yor; g\u00f6sterge KOSPI endeksi daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullara kar\u015f\u0131 tedirgin tepki veriyor. K\u0131sa vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir d\u00fczeltmeye kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in KOSPI 200 vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, y\u00fckselen faiz oranlar\u0131 ile hisse piyasas\u0131 likiditesindeki so\u011fuman\u0131n birle\u015fimi, \u00f6zellikle konut fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselmeye devam ederken yerel hisseler \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini resmi olarak %3,5\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseltirse, uzun vadeli faiz swaplar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip hale gelebilir. K\u0131sa vadeli politika ayarlamalar\u0131 ile daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc uzun vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme aras\u0131ndaki farktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in, faiz swaptions kullanarak daha dik bir getiri e\u011frisi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu t\u00fcrev giri\u015flerinin zamanlamas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yakla\u015fan makroekonomik politika a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi kritik olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar BoK\u2019tan a\u011fustosta 25 bp art\u0131\u015fla faizin %3,00\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131, GSYH\/T\u00dcFE tahminlerinin yukar\u0131 revize edilmesini fiyatl\u0131yor. KRW g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken KTB k\u0131sa, USD\/KRW k\u0131sa, KOSPI put \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50071,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53129","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t