{"id":53128,"date":"2026-08-22T10:26:58","date_gmt":"2026-08-22T10:26:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/pce-ve-jackson-hole-oncesi-geri-alimlarin-tahvil-getirilerini-baskilamasiyla-dolar-mayis-diplerine-yakin-zayif-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-08-22T10:26:58","modified_gmt":"2026-08-22T10:26:58","slug":"pce-ve-jackson-hole-oncesi-geri-alimlarin-tahvil-getirilerini-baskilamasiyla-dolar-mayis-diplerine-yakin-zayif-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/pce-ve-jackson-hole-oncesi-geri-alimlarin-tahvil-getirilerini-baskilamasiyla-dolar-mayis-diplerine-yakin-zayif-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"PCE ve Jackson Hole \u00f6ncesi, geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n tahvil getirilerini bask\u0131lamas\u0131yla dolar May\u0131s diplerine yak\u0131n zay\u0131f seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), 98,50\u2019li seviyelere sarkmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan haftay\u0131 98,80 civar\u0131nda tamamlad\u0131; ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha uzun vadeli bor\u00e7larda geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 en az iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karma planlar\u0131n\u0131n getirileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi, fla\u015f PMI anketlerinin faaliyette h\u0131zlanmaya i\u015faret etmesine ra\u011fmen, DXY\u2019yi May\u0131s\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n tuttu. Riskli varl\u0131klar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti: alt\u0131n 4.600 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesine t\u0131rmand\u0131, AUD\/USD 0,7170 yak\u0131n\u0131nda \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k zirveye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve WTI, Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin destekledi\u011fi fiyatlarla 80 dolar\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131nda, d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n en y\u00fckse\u011fine yak\u0131n kapand\u0131. ABD g\u00fcndemi gelecek hafta \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Temmuz PCE Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne kadar sakin; Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise \u201cFinansal \u0130novasyon: \u00d6demeler ve Politika A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131\u201d temal\u0131 sempozyumda Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n ilk Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131 ve BLS\u2019nin Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam\u2019a ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc y\u0131ll\u0131k benchmark revizyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

FX taraf\u0131nda EUR\/USD, 1,1700 alt\u0131nda yeniden ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1,1680 civar\u0131nda kapand\u0131; Euro B\u00f6lgesi kataliz\u00f6rlerinde Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Almanya IFO ve 2\u00c7 GSYH nihai verisi, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ECB toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131\/hesaplar\u0131, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise Cipollone ve Schnabel\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yla birlikte fla\u015f A\u011fustos HICP \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. GBP\/USD 1,3600\u2019lerin ortas\u0131nda haftay\u0131 tamamlarken, USD\/JPY swaps piyasas\u0131n\u0131n 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de BoJ faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %80 fiyatlamas\u0131yla Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tokyo T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesinde 159,00\u2019un hemen \u00fczerinde tutundu. Avustralya\u2019da odak Pazartesi RBA tutanaklar\u0131, Sal\u0131 ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE ve \u00c7ar\u015famba 2\u00c7 sermaye harcamalar\u0131 verileri; man\u015fet enflasyonun %3,8\u2019den %3,2\u2019ye do\u011fru gerilemesi bekleniyor. Kanada Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc GSYH verisini a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrev \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri ve Piyasa G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) May\u0131s\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n 98,80\u2019de seyretmesi nedeniyle sert hareketlere haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Hazine\u2019nin uzun vadeli tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karma karar\u0131 getirileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerek, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin etkisini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde n\u00f6trledi. Daha fazla zay\u0131flama senaryosuna pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, dolarda maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n 4.600 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki tarihi zirvesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da s\u00fcren gerilim g\u00fcvenli liman momentumunu belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Tarihsel olarak benzer \u015fekilde gerileyen reel getiriler ile jeopolitik risk kombinasyonu, son on y\u0131ldaki emtia s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na benzer bi\u00e7imde de\u011ferli metalleri uzayan rallilere ta\u015f\u0131yabildi. Gelecek haftaki kritik ba\u015fl\u0131klar \u00f6ncesinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamak ad\u0131na alt\u0131nda uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Temmuz PCE enflasyon endeksi ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole\u2019daki ilk konu\u015fmas\u0131, dolar yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in nihai stres testi niteli\u011finde. Warsh\u2019tan gelebilecek g\u00fcvercin tondaki mesajlar ve ABD istihdam verilerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyonun birle\u015fmesi, dolar endeksinde sert bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. \u201cKesinle\u015fen\u201d volatilite k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD ve GBP\/USD\u2019de straddle stratejilerini tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n

G10 FX, Emtia ve Enerji Piyasalar\u0131nda F\u0131rsatlar<\/h3>\n

USD\/JPY\u2019de 159,00 \u00e7evresinde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir f\u0131rsat alan\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; zira Japonya swap piyasas\u0131 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu anda %80 civar\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor. Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tokyo T\u00dcFE bask\u0131l\u0131\/\u201cs\u0131cak\u201d gelirse, pariteyi 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131na do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi muhtemel. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bunu, olas\u0131 BoJ \u015fahin s\u00fcrprizine kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 \u015fekilde oynayabilmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (OTM) USD\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n

Son olarak, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde 0,7170 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki Avustralya Dolar\u0131 konusunda temkinli olunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; enflasyonun %3,8\u2019den %3,2\u2019ye so\u011fumas\u0131 bekleniyor. Daha zay\u0131f bir veri, Aussie\u2019deki son rallinin ivmesini kesebilir; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli AUD\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 makul bir korunma arac\u0131 haline getiriyor. Enerji taraf\u0131nda ise WTI fiyatlar\u0131 80 dolar\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131nda tutunurken \u0130ran\u2019la s\u00fcregelen gerilimi oynamak i\u00e7in bull call spread stratejilerini tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dolar endeksi 98,80\u2019de dipte oyalan\u0131yor: Hazine geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 getirileri bast\u0131rd\u0131. Alt\u0131n 4.600 \u00fcst\u00fcnde rekor, petrol 80 band\u0131nda. PCE\u2013Jackson Hole \u00f6ncesi opsiyonlarla volatilite av\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t