ABD dolar\u0131 yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmedi; USD\/JPY cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 159,00 seviyesinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcklerinde ve 159,02 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Japonya\u2019da temmuz enflasyonu h\u0131zland\u0131: man\u015fet t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,9 artt\u0131 ve \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergeler g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, a\u011fustos i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 anketleri beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131. Faiz beklentileri de buna paralel \u015fekillendi: swaplar, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %80 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da yene destek veriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri ise ters y\u00f6nde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. \u00d6nc\u00fc S&P Global PMI anketleri, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde faaliyetin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret etti; Hizmetler verisinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle Bile\u015fik endeks 54,5\u2019ten 56\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi, \u0130malat PMI ise gerileyerek tahminleri ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131. Bu zemin, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d duru\u015funu destekliyor ve haftal\u0131k kayba ra\u011fmen dolara yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor. ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, tahvil piyasas\u0131ndaki gerilimi azaltmak ve getirileri s\u0131n\u0131rlamak amac\u0131yla uzun vadeli bor\u00e7 geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 en az iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Washington\u2019un \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara do\u011fru y\u00f6nelmesi de risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; bu durum genellikle g\u00fcvenli liman yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan USD\/JPY, 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (158,81) ve 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (158,91) \u00fczerinde tutundu; RSI 51\u2019e yak\u0131n seyretti. Diren\u00e7ler 159,04 ve ard\u0131ndan 159,13\u2019te; destekler ise 158,91, 158,87, 158,81 ve 158,63 seviyelerinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 159,00 seviyesinde konsolide olmas\u0131yla, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerinin yatay bantta bir piyasaya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n 158,81\u2013158,91 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, ba\u015fa ba\u015fa yak\u0131n (near-the-money) opsiyon spread\u2019leri yazarak zaman de\u011ferindeki erimeyi (premium decay) toplama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunabilir. Tarihsel olarak a\u011fustos sonuna do\u011fru i\u015flem hacimleri %20\u2019ye varan oranlarda d\u00fc\u015fer; bu da b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131 etkinlikleri \u00f6ncesinde sert k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 genellikle s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Gelecek cuma Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un Jackson Hole\u2019daki ilk konu\u015fmas\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken, ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerinin, Fed\u2019in politika patikas\u0131 netle\u015ftik\u00e7e ya\u015fanabilecek bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY strangle al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekir. Fed ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki ge\u00e7mi\u015f de\u011fi\u015fimler, piyasan\u0131n yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131n tonuna uyum sa\u011flamas\u0131yla d\u00f6viz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama %15\u2019lik bir s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 tarihsel olarak tetikledi.<\/p>\n
Bu arada Japonya\u2019da %1,9\u2019luk g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc enflasyon ve sa\u011flam i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 anketleri, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda BoJ\u2019un faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %80\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. \u00d6nemli 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamaya do\u011fru olas\u0131 ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n teyit edilmesi halinde, kalan carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesiyle yen h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, Bile\u015fik PMI\u2019nin 56\u2019ya s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri dolar i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturmaya devam edecek. Bu \u00e7eki\u015fme nedeniyle, prim maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmak amac\u0131yla taban\u0131 158,00\u2019in hemen alt\u0131na ayarlanm\u0131\u015f knock-out bariyer opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n tercih edilmesinden yanay\u0131z. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, y\u00fcksek derecede \u00e7eki\u015fmeli bir piyasada a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 koruma primi \u00f6demeden yen rallisine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmay\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar\/yen 159\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: Japon enflasyonu ve %80 BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi yene destek, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD PMI ve \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d Fed dolara taban. Yatay bantta opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49957,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t