USD\/CHF, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi etmesiyle Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yatay seyretti; bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce 0,7949\u2019a gerileyerek 17 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan 0,8013 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Toparlanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen parite, haftay\u0131 ekside kapatma yolunda ilerledi. \u0130svi\u00e7re taraf\u0131nda, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00fcyesi Petra Tschudin\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 Frank \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Yetkili, enflasyonu orta vadede %0-%2 band\u0131nda tutmak i\u00e7in s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131na faiz indirimlerinin kullan\u0131labilece\u011fine i\u015faret ederken, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda daha s\u0131k\u0131 faiz beklentilerinin de CHF\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki fakt\u00f6rlerden biri oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 98,56\u2019ya indikten sonra 98,81 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n dip seviyelerine yak\u0131n kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve haftal\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,80\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6neldi. Veri taraf\u0131nda, \u00f6nc\u00fc S&P Global Bile\u015fik PMI A\u011fustos\u2019ta 54,5\u2019ten 56,0\u2019a y\u00fckselerek 52 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Hizmet PMI 54,6\u2019dan 56,8\u2019e t\u0131rmanarak 20 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; \u0130malat PMI ise 53,9\u2019dan 53,2\u2019ye gerileyerek be\u015f ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyine indi. Haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda dolar, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha uzun vadeli devlet tahvillerinde likidite destekleyici geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 operasyon ba\u015f\u0131na en az 4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kararak iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak CME FedWatch Tool, gelecek ay faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %65 olarak fiyatlarken, dikkatler gelecek haftaki PCE enflasyon verilerine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7eli\u015fen merkez bankas\u0131 sinyallerinin opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda \u00f6zg\u00fcn f\u0131rsatlar yaratmas\u0131yla USD\/CHF paritesinde artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131. SNB\u2019nin negatif faizlere geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etmesi ve Fed\u2019in faizlerde \u201cpas\u201d e\u011filimi g\u00f6stermesiyle bu paritedeki geleneksel dinamikler de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Bu geli\u015fmeler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerinin her iki y\u00f6nde sert k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle veya strangle stratejilerini kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu stratejiyi desteklemek ad\u0131na, S&P Global Hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131n 20 ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 56,8\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla ABD hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn diren\u00e7li seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steren son g\u00f6stergelere bak\u0131labilir. Bu ekonomik dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ad\u0131mlar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak ABD hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde imalat\u0131n \u00fczerinde performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011finde, dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban bulma e\u011filimi art\u0131yor; bu da CHF \u00fczerine put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir korunma arac\u0131 haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n operasyon ba\u015f\u0131na en az 4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan (iki kat\u0131na y\u00fckseltilen) likidite destekleyici geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. Bu y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00e7ekli likidite enjeksiyonu, uzun vadeli ABD tahvil getirileri \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etki yaratarak DXY\u2019yi \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n dip seviyesi olan 98,56 civar\u0131nda bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Faiz swaplar\u0131 veya d\u00f6viz vadeli i\u015flemleriyle i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in, yakla\u015fan PCE enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde piyasan\u0131n bu mali m\u00fcdahaleyi sindirmesiyle getiri e\u011frisinin daha yatayla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 (flatter) bir senaryoya pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CHF 0,8013\u2019te yatay; hafta ekside. SNB negatif faiz sinyali CHF\u2019yi zay\u0131flat\u0131rken DXY \u00fc\u00e7 ay dipte. PMI kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k, PCE bekleniyor. Opsiyonlarda k\u0131sa vadeli straddle\/strangle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t