EUR\/USD, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den itibaren ge\u00e7erli olmak \u00fczere bor\u00e7 geri al\u0131mlar\u0131nda operasyon ba\u015f\u0131na azami tutar\u0131 2 milyar dolardan 4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kararak en az iki kat\u0131na y\u00fckseltece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flayan ABD Dolar\u0131 ile 1,1700 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesine t\u0131rmand\u0131. Hamle, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Haziran 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %5,327\u2019ye dokunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 9 baz puan gerilemesini izledi. Dikkat daha sonra S&P Global PMI verilerine kayd\u0131: Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u0130malat PMI 51,9\u2019dan 52,8\u2019e y\u00fckselirken Hizmetler 51,7\u2019de sabit kald\u0131 ve Bile\u015fik 52,1 oldu; ABD\u2019de \u0130malat 53,9\u2019dan 53,2\u2019ye geriledi, Hizmetler 54,6\u2019dan 56,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve Bile\u015fik 54,5\u2019ten 56\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131karak 54 beklentisinin \u00fczerine geldi.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 Almanya 2\u00c7 GSYH, ABD Temmuz PCE Fiyat Endeksi ve ABD 2\u00c7 GSYH\u2019nin ikinci tahminini; ayr\u0131ca Fed\u2019in Kansas City ev sahipli\u011finde d\u00fczenlenecek \u201cFinansal \u0130novasyon: \u00d6demeler ve Politika A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Sonu\u00e7lar\u201d temal\u0131 Jackson Hole sempozyumunu i\u00e7eriyor. BLS, Mart ay\u0131na kadar olan 12 ay\u0131 kapsayan y\u0131ll\u0131k tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) k\u0131yaslama revizyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yay\u0131mlayacak. Teknik olarak EUR\/USD, 1,1542\u2019deki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n, 1,1573\u2019teki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n ve 1,1631\u2019deki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken RSI 71 seviyesinde; kritik destek 1,1631 civar\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 1,1570 b\u00f6lgesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken diren\u00e7 1,1710, 1,1800 ve 1,1850 seviyelerinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 1,1700 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan EUR\/USD paritesinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 1,1631\u2019deki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc teknik destek dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 1,1800 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesini hedefleyen bo\u011fa call spread\u2019leri uygulamay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. Bu strateji, ani bir kur d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinden faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den itibaren tahvil geri al\u0131m b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc 4 milyar dolara ikiye katlama karar\u0131 muhtemelen uzun vadeli getirileri bask\u0131layacak ve ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 daha da zay\u0131flatacakt\u0131r. Tarihsel olarak, 2000\u2019lerin ba\u015flar\u0131ndaki Hazine geri al\u0131m programlar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda devlet tahvili getirileri sert d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f ve bu durum dolara belirgin bask\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda beklenen bu likidite enjeksiyonundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Jackson Hole Sempozyumu ve ABD PCE enflasyon verisi yakla\u015f\u0131rken piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, piyasan\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne k\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde uzun straddle\u2019lar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. D\u00f6viz opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k, bu t\u00fcr b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131 bulu\u015fmalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde genellikle y\u00fckseldi\u011finden, \u00f6n al\u0131c\u0131 oynakl\u0131k pozisyonlanmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip hale geliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler ve \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni yapt\u0131r\u0131m tehdidi enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. G\u00f6m\u00fcl\u00fc enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 hedge amac\u0131yla Brent petrol\u00fc call opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, uzayan jeopolitik \u00e7\u0131kmaz d\u00f6nemlerinde belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmi\u015f olup bu durum emtia temal\u0131 bu pozisyonu desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir.<\/p>\n\n
Haftal\u0131k grafik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimine i\u015faret etse de, g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) \u015fu anda 71 civar\u0131nda seyrederek a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Mevcut uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in, 1,1570 destek b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) koruyucu put\u2019lar al\u0131nmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilmeli. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, yakla\u015fan Almanya 2\u00c7 GSYH verisinin veya ABD istihdam revizyonlar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ici bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltmeyi tetiklemesi halinde portf\u00f6ylerin korunmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar frene bast\u0131, EUR\/USD \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesinde! Hazine geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 4 milyar $\u2019a \u00e7\u0131karken getiriler geriledi; PMI\u2019lar kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. Piyasada Jackson Hole, PCE, GSYH ve NFP revizyonu; tekniklerde 1,1631 destek, 1,1800 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t