RBC, k\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131ndaki durgunlu\u011fun ard\u0131ndan Kanada\u2019n\u0131n haziran ve ikinci \u00e7eyrek GSYH verilerinin toparlanmaya i\u015faret etmesini bekliyor. Bankaya g\u00f6re ivme; daha s\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 ile i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 ve konut yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fmeyle destekleniyor. RBC, \u0130statistik Kanada\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc tahminiyle uyumlu \u015fekilde haziranda %0,2 art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; nisan ve may\u0131sta toplamda neredeyse 1 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan. Revizyon ge\u00e7mi\u015fi hesaba kat\u0131lsa bile RBC, 2\u00c7\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Net d\u0131\u015f ticaretin, ihracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 geride b\u0131rakmas\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye kayda de\u011fer katk\u0131 yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, k\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fcretim aksamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan otomotiv sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki toparlanmayla k\u0131smen destekleniyor. Ancak bu r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 beklenmiyor; otomotiv \u00fcretimi ve ticaret ak\u0131mlar\u0131ndan gelen deste\u011fin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyreklerde tekrarlanmas\u0131 olas\u0131 de\u011fil. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, demografik ve ticaret kaynakl\u0131 olumsuzluklar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc bask\u0131lamas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak 2\u00c7 GSYH verisinin, otomotiv ihracat\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa vadeli toparlanma ve t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131yla beslenen, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde ge\u00e7ici bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya i\u015faret etmesini bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc man\u015fet veri, Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019nda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir ralli tetikleyebilir ve k\u0131sa vadeli getirileri yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Piyasa kaynakl\u0131 bu ge\u00e7ici iyimserli\u011fi, \u00f6zellikle CAD\u2019in 74 ABD senti civar\u0131ndaki yak\u0131n diren\u00e7 seviyesini a\u015fmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kurda k\u0131sa pozisyon kurmak i\u00e7in uygun bir pencere olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ani b\u00fcy\u00fcme patikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi olas\u0131 de\u011fil; yap\u0131sal ticaret engelleri ve demografik de\u011fi\u015fimler y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyreklerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmeye aday. Tarihsel olarak, k\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 otomotiv sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki toparlanma gibi ge\u00e7ici ticaret destekleri h\u0131zla zay\u0131flar ve temel ekonomi, yava\u015flayan t\u00fcketici talebine kar\u015f\u0131 daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale gelir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe, Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019nda sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu alarak veya Kanada devlet tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon hedefleyerek haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinamiklerini yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi bir ortamda, politika beklentilerinde \u015fahin bir kayman\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi halinde bunun da k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Swap piyasalar\u0131 \u015fu anda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 faiz ayarlamalar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde olumsuz r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131n artmas\u0131yla uzun vadeli patikan\u0131n daha fazla gev\u015femeye i\u015faret etti\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Ekonomik yava\u015flama belirginle\u015fti\u011finde olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, getiri e\u011frisi dikle\u015fmesi (steepener) stratejilerinin\u2014\u00f6zellikle CORRA gibi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyonlanman\u0131n\u2014uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kanada\u2019da s\u00fcrpriz b\u00fcy\u00fcme! RBC, haziranda %0,2 ve 2\u00c7\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %3+ GSYH art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor; otomotiv ihracat\u0131 ge\u00e7ici destek. CAD\u2019de k\u0131sa ralli sonras\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f, tahvil\/steepener stratejisi \u00f6neriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53101","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t