Asya hisseleri cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 korurken, k\u00fcresel tahvil getirileri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n hafiflemesiyle haftal\u0131k bazda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri ise \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz Hazine m\u00fcdahalesine ba\u011fl\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli soluklanman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden y\u00fckseldi; bu, ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in mali konsolidasyon ve geni\u015fletilmi\u015f Hazine geri al\u0131m program\u0131na ili\u015fkin yorumlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki diplomatik \u00e7\u0131kmazlar\u0131n enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden alevlendirmesiyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselirken, Washington pazartesi a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 planlanan ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 bankalar, gemi sicilleri, nakit transferleri ve ka\u00e7ak\u00e7\u0131l\u0131k a\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 hedef alan \u00f6nlemlerle s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan bir \u201cekonomik D-g\u00fcn\u00fc\u201d paketini haz\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya\u2019da Nikkei 225 %0,21 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 66.100\u2019e gerilerken, Topix %0,17 art\u0131\u015fla 4.050\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; temmuz man\u015fet T\u00dcFE hazirandaki %1,6\u2019dan y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,0\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken, taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7 \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %1,8 oldu. Hong Kong\u2019da Hang Seng %0,76 y\u00fckselerek 25.900\u2019e yakla\u015f\u0131rken, enflasyon temmuzda \u00f6nceki iki aydaki %2,0 seviyesinden %1,7\u2019ye geriledi. G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de KOSPI %0,74 art\u0131\u015fla 6.900 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Samsung Electronics yakla\u015f\u0131k %1, SK Hynix %4 y\u00fckseldi; a\u011fustosun ilk 20 g\u00fcn\u00fcnde yar\u0131 iletken ihracat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karak 26 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7in kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti: \u015eanghay %0,12 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 3.900 civar\u0131na inerken, Shenzhen %0,5 art\u0131\u015fla 14.050 seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; 25\u201328 A\u011fustos\u2019taki Ulusal Halk Kongresi (NPC) Daimi Komitesi toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, uzun vadeli ABD Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak ABD tahvil getirilerindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin s\u00fcrmesine konumlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Taktik nitelikteki kamu geri al\u0131mlar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle ABD ulusal borcunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda 40 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ortamda, yap\u0131sal b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 endi\u015felerini dengelemeye yetmeyecektir. Tarihsel olarak, ge\u00e7ici getiri gerilemeleri daha y\u00fcksek faizlere oynayan pozisyonlar i\u00e7in cazip giri\u015f noktalar\u0131 sundu\u011fundan, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in \u201cpayer swaption\u201d stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Pazartesi duyurulmas\u0131 beklenen \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ABD \u201cekonomik D-g\u00fcn\u00fc\u201d giri\u015fimi \u00f6ncesinde, ani arz \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. K\u00f6rfez\u2019de t\u0131rmanan gerilimlerin petrol\u00fc y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; tarihsel veriler bunun h\u0131zla daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 k\u00fcresel enflasyona yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Enerji endekslerinde kullan\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) call spread\u2019leri almak, riski y\u00f6netirken bu jeopolitik yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca G\u00fcney Koreli teknoloji devlerinde ve KOSPI ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 t\u00fcrevlerde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call opsiyonlar\u0131yla yar\u0131 iletken sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki patlay\u0131c\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi de\u011ferlendirmeye bakmal\u0131y\u0131z. G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin yar\u0131 iletken ihracat\u0131 a\u011fustosun ilk 20 g\u00fcn\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karak 26 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131; bu, yapay zek\u00e2 donan\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00fcresel talebe i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 ihracat hacmi, teknoloji hisselerindeki son geri \u00e7ekilmenin ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar i\u00e7in son derece elveri\u015fli bir risk-getiri oran\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, \u00c7in\u2019in 25\u201328 A\u011fustos\u2019taki kritik yasama toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Hang Seng Endeksi \u00fczerinde straddle gibi volatilite stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ana karadaki son ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131k, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar \u00fczerinde agresif mali te\u015fvik a\u00e7\u0131klama bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Piyasa beklentileri herhangi bir politika duyurusuna kar\u015f\u0131 son derece hassas oldu\u011fundan, z\u0131mni volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel; bu da sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon alan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6d\u00fcllendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: Asya hisseleri dengeli, ABD tahvil getirileri yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fte. \u0130ran \u201cekonomik D-g\u00fcn\u00fc\u201d petrol\u00fc destekliyor. Strateji: uzun vadeli faizlere, Brent call\u2019lara, Kore yar\u0131 iletkenlerine ve \u00c7in volatilitesine oynay\u0131n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50055,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53080","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t