Hindistan rupisi, Cuma \u00f6\u011fleden sonra i\u015flemlerinde ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131; petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ve ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerindeki toparlanman\u0131n para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmas\u0131yla USD\/INR 95,72 civar\u0131nda seyretti. 21 Eyl\u00fcl vadeli MCX ham petrol, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 8.404 Rs ile \u00fc\u00e7 haftay\u0131 a\u015fan zirveyi g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan sabah saatlerinde 8.285 Rs civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ekonomiler \u00fczerinde s\u0131kl\u0131kla bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. ABD 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,25 d\u00fczeyindeydi; Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc toparlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek daha riskli para birimleri i\u00e7in finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
ABD\u2013\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin t\u0131kan\u0131k kalmas\u0131yla petrol y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu; s\u00f6z konusu g\u00fczerg\u00e2h k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019siyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Faiz cephesinde, 31,4 trilyon dolarl\u0131k toplam piyasa b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc referans al\u0131narak Hazine\u2019nin geri al\u0131m (buyback) operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD bor\u00e7 dinamiklerine dair endi\u015feler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hindistan\u2019da A\u011fustos ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc HSBC Bile\u015fik PMI 54,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselerek 54,4\u2019l\u00fck beklentiyi ve Temmuz\u2019daki 54,3 seviyesini a\u015ft\u0131; Hizmetler PMI 53,3\u2019ten 54,5\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, \u0130malat PMI 53,5\u2019ten 52,9\u2019a geriledi (beklenti 54,0). Teknik tarafta USD\/INR 95,49\u201395,87 band\u0131nda kald\u0131; 20 periyot \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama (EMA) 95,57\u2019de, RSI ise 55 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerin USD\/INR\u2019de s\u00fcrebilecek yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; parite \u015fu anda 95,72 seviyesine yak\u0131n dalgalan\u0131yor. 95,49 ile 95,87 aras\u0131ndaki dar i\u015flem aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, iron condor gibi bant i\u00e7i opsiyon stratejileri kullan\u0131labilir; parite 95,87 \u00fczerine k\u0131rarsa bull call spread\u2019lere odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131 uygun olabilir. Tarihsel olarak 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (halihaz\u0131rda 95,57) destek olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, kurda ilave de\u011fer kayb\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemin olu\u015ftu\u011funa i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n\n
Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor; Hindistan ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn %80\u2019den fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011finden, rupi enerji \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a hassas. MCX ham petrol\u00fcn \u00fc\u00e7 haftal\u0131k zirvelere yak\u0131n, 8.285 Rs civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle Hindistan\u2019\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131k bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ve yerel para birimi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu riski petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon alarak ya da USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak, Hint hisse t\u00fcrevlerindeki olas\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 dengeleyerek hedge edebilir.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00fcnyan\u0131n petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse %20\u2019sine ge\u00e7it veren H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki jeopolitik gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u015foklar\u0131n hen\u00fcz bitmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. ABD y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 baypas eden \u00fclkelere a\u011f\u0131r ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar tehdidiyle, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemciler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu artan belirsizlik, enerji kontratlar\u0131nda uzun straddle gibi prim al\u0131m\u0131na dayal\u0131 stratejileri k\u0131sa vadede daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
30 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirilerinin %5,25\u2019e toparlanmas\u0131yla, yabanc\u0131 sermaye daha g\u00fcvenli ABD bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131 lehine daha riskli geli\u015fen piyasalardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor. 2007\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fcksek faiz ortamlar\u0131n\u0131 and\u0131ran bu getiri s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, benzer ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemlerde geli\u015fen piyasa hisselerinden milyarlarca dolar \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapan yabanc\u0131 portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan rupinin cazibesini belirgin \u015fekilde azalt\u0131yor. ABD\u2019de bor\u00e7lanma maliyetinin k\u00fcresel likiditeyi bask\u0131lamas\u0131yla, \u00f6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fck Hindistan endeks vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyonlarla sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 konumlan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Hindistan i\u00e7 ekonomisi, \u00f6nc\u00fc Bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131n 54,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesiyle dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterse de imalat\u0131n 52,9\u2019a yava\u015flamas\u0131 karma bir tabloya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, hizmetler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken sanayi taraf\u0131n\u0131n artan ithalat maliyetlerinin bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hissetti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kur i\u015flemcilerinin USD\/INR\u2019de uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 tercih etmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; zira i\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tek ba\u015f\u0131na bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00fcresel makroekonomik r\u00fczg\u00e2rlara tam anlam\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 koyamayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rupi bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda: Petrol 3 haftan\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n, ABD 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz %5,25\u2019te. USD\/INR 95,72\u2019de bantta. PMI g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; jeopolitik risk s\u00fcrerken opsiyonla hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53079","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t