EUR\/USD, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesine dokunduktan sonra 1,1700 seviyesinin yeniden alt\u0131na indi; daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD Dolar\u0131, paritenin per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131n\u0131 engelledi. Hareket, Hazine\u2019nin uzun vadeli tahvillerde geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 2 milyar dolardan 4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerindeki toparlanmay\u0131 izledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,10 art\u0131\u015fla 98,84\u2019e y\u00fckselerek, 17 Nisan\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,1800 seviyesinin yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD istihdam verileri de Dolar\u2019\u0131 destekledi: 15 A\u011fustos\u2019ta biten haftaya ili\u015fkin haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 206 bin ile 210 binlik beklentinin ve \u00f6nceki 212 binlik verinin alt\u0131nda geldi; zay\u0131f temmuz tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) raporuna ra\u011fmen. Temmuz ay\u0131 Fed tutanaklar\u0131, enflasyona y\u00f6nelik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; baz\u0131 politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar faiz art\u0131rmaya haz\u0131rken, bir\u00e7ok \u00fcye enflasyonun %2\u2019ye do\u011fru ilerlememesi halinde art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti. Prime Terminal\u2019e g\u00f6re swap piyasas\u0131 eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %35, aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %64 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Almanya\u2019n\u0131n temmuz \u00dcFE\u2019si ayl\u0131k bazda -%0,3\u2019ten %1,1\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, y\u0131ll\u0131k oran %1,8\u2019den %3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; %2,7\u2019lik beklentinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. S\u0131rada Fransa, Almanya, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ve ABD i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verileri bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD paritesi 1,1700 seviyesini korumakta zorlan\u0131rken, olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi yakalamak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon stratejilerine odaklanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 73,13 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde seyretmesi, yak\u0131n vadede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. 1,1472 civar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek k\u00fcmesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 d\u00fczeltmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 veya bear put spread kurulumu de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerindeki son toparlanma ile Dolar Endeksi\u2019ne (DXY) yeniden ivme kazand\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla da destekleniyor. ABD Hazine\u2019sinin uzun vadeli tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 4 milyar dolara ikiye katlama karar\u0131, likiditeyi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak DXY\u2019yi 98,84\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Tarihsel olarak ABD Dolar Endeksi 98,50 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde dengelendi\u011finde, Euro\u2019daki y\u00fckseli\u015fler h\u0131zla s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenme e\u011filiminde; bu da \u015fu a\u015famada agresif uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, long straddle gibi volatilite bazl\u0131 t\u00fcrev stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Swap piyasas\u0131 eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini yaln\u0131zca %35 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da ABD\u2019den gelecek olumlu bir ekonomik s\u00fcrprizin bu olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerek sert piyasa hareketleri yaratabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 i\u00e7in art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %64 gibi daha y\u00fcksek bir seviyede olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler Euro uzunlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
PMI verileri sonras\u0131nda EUR\/USD kritik 1,1681 deste\u011finin \u00fczerinde tutunmay\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131rsa, prim toplamak amac\u0131yla 1,1450 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d put opsiyonlar\u0131 yazmaya ge\u00e7ilebilir. Bu seviye, d\u00fczeltme fazlar\u0131nda tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban i\u015flevi g\u00f6ren basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n k\u00fcmelendi\u011fi alan taraf\u0131ndan yo\u011fun bi\u00e7imde korunuyor. \u015eimdilik 1,1849\u2019daki ana yatay direncin \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rmeden, 1,1700 \u00fczerindeki k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 kovalamakta temkinli kal\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dikkat: Dolar yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor! EUR\/USD 1,1700 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131; tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen getiriler DXY\u2019yi 98,84\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m RSI, PMI \u00f6ncesi opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t