ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, 10\u201320 y\u0131l ve 20\u201330 y\u0131l vadeli segmentlerdeki \u201clikidite deste\u011fi\u201d geri al\u0131mlar\u0131nda operasyon ba\u015f\u0131na azami tutar\u0131 2 milyar dolardan 4 milyar dolara iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karacak; geni\u015fletilmi\u015f takvim 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u20134 Kas\u0131m d\u00f6neminde uygulanacak. Plan, piyasadan daha eski uzun vadeli Hazine tahvillerini sat\u0131n al\u0131p itfa etmeyi; program\u0131 ise daha k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil ve bonolar\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla finanse etmeyi i\u00e7eriyor. Arka planda y\u0131ll\u0131k 1 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki federal faiz faturas\u0131 ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 32 trilyon dolar de\u011ferindeki tahvil piyasas\u0131 bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan getiriler geriledi: 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 18 A\u011fustos\u2019ta g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 5,34% ile 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 5,31%\u2019den kapand\u0131; ard\u0131ndan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 5,19%\u2019a indi ve Per\u015fembe sabah\u0131 5,24%\u2019e toparland\u0131. Hazine ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihalesi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi ve A\u011fustos \u00e7eyreklik bor\u00e7lanma (refunding) a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda 3, 10 ve 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k vadelerde toplam 125 milyar dolarl\u0131k menkul k\u0131ymet sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 plan\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu; buna 25 milyar dolarl\u0131k 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihrac\u0131 da dahil. Alt\u0131n, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.500 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak iki ay\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ilk kez bu seviyeyi a\u015ft\u0131; g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ise ons ba\u015f\u0131na 68 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Hazine\u2019nin geni\u015fletilen geri al\u0131m operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ba\u015flamas\u0131yla, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda uzun vadeli getiriler \u00fczerinde ge\u00e7ici bir tavan olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar, TLT gibi uzun vade duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek Hazine ETF\u2019lerinde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak bu yapay fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yakalamay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. Ancak bu m\u00fcdahalenin 4 Kas\u0131m\u2019da sona ermesi planland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, getiriler ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak yeniden y\u00fckseldi\u011finde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fe haz\u0131r olmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli bonolar\u0131 sat\u0131p uzun vadeli tahvil almak \u015feklindeki bu hamle, getiri e\u011frisini ge\u00e7ici olarak yatayla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r. Bunu, \u00f6zellikle Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 \u00f6ncesinde yatayla\u015fma y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filimi hedefleyerek getiri e\u011frisi spread i\u015flemleriyle de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. ABD ulusal borcunun 40 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc mevcut tabloda, bu yapay yatayla\u015fma, do\u011fal arz-talep dinamikleri yeniden kontrol\u00fc ald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda h\u0131zla \u201csteepener\u201d (e\u011frinin dikle\u015fmesi) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde tersine d\u00f6necektir.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u00e7\u0131k getiri bask\u0131lama hamlesi, \u015fimdiden alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.500 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 68 dolar\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, k\u0131ymetli metaller i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseli\u015f sinyali veriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu momentumu kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Hazine\u2019nin piyasay\u0131 do\u011fal bi\u00e7imde dengelemesine y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenini tamamen kaybederse, bu savunmac\u0131 varl\u0131klara ciddi bir sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, operasyon ba\u015f\u0131na 4 milyar dolarl\u0131k bu ad\u0131m\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi yo\u011fun bask\u0131, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemine girildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u00e7eki\u015fmenin yarataca\u011f\u0131 sert dalgalanmalardan faydalanmak i\u00e7in Hazine opsiyonlar\u0131nda straddle veya strangle stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilmeli. 9 Eyl\u00fcl ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 tarihine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, y\u00fcksek volatiliteye pozisyon almak bu m\u00fcdahalenin yarataca\u011f\u0131 hareketlili\u011fi yakalaman\u0131n en iyi yolu olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: ABD Hazine, uzun vade geri al\u0131m limitini 4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p 9 Eyl\u00fclde ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Getiriler gerilerken alt\u0131n 4.500$, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 68$; e\u011fri ge\u00e7ici yatayla\u015f\u0131p sonra dikle\u015febilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t