Sterlin, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi; GBP\/USD y\u00fczde 0,25 art\u0131\u015fla 1,3639\u2019da i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken g\u00fcn i\u00e7i zirvede 1,3659\u2019u test etti. B\u00f6ylece parite \u015eubat ay\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, piyasalar\u0131n Temmuz ay\u0131 Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisinin daha yumu\u015fak gelmesine ra\u011fmen i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flam kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden ABD verilerini de\u011ferlendirmesi ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyonun Bank of England\u2019\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fcndemde tutmas\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Dolar, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n getiri e\u011frisinin uzun ucunda likiditeyi art\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefleyen bir tahvil geri al\u0131m program\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti; bu ad\u0131m baz\u0131 piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc bir getiri e\u011frisi kontrol\u00fc (YCC) bi\u00e7imi olarak yorumland\u0131. GBP\/USD ikinci seans \u00fcst \u00fcste kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 1,3630 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Parite, Hazine\u2019nin y\u00fckselen getirileri s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ve likidite bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 hafifletmek amac\u0131yla 10-30 y\u0131l vadeli uzun vadeli menkul k\u0131ymet geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karma plan\u0131yla destek bulurken, 1,3650\/60 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma bu y\u0131l 1,41\u2019e do\u011fru alan a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD paritesini 1,3650 ile 1,3660 aras\u0131ndaki kritik diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesini test ederken yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Parite bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f al\u0131rsa, 1,4100\u2019e do\u011fru orta vadeli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir rallinin \u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131lacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in risk s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 sa\u011flarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamak amac\u0131yla uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 veya bull call spread stratejilerini kullanabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu hareketin ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki s\u00fcregelen zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve buna ek olarak ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n agresif tahvil geri al\u0131m program\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6rt\u00fcl\u00fc bir getiri e\u011frisi kontrol\u00fc gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bu likidite enjeksiyonu, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) 100,50 seviyesine do\u011fru \u00e7ekti. \u201cGreenback\u201d \u00fczerindeki bu kal\u0131c\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131dan faydalanmak i\u00e7in ba\u015fa ba\u015fa yak\u0131n (near-the-money) GBP\/USD call opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Denklemin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda, \u0130ngiliz Sterlini diren\u00e7li kal\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yap\u0131\u015fkan seyreden yurt i\u00e7i enflasyon, faizlerin y\u00fcksek seviyelerde korunaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini beslemeye devam ediyor. Son \u0130ngiltere verileri, \u00e7ekirdek hizmet enflasyonunun y\u00fczde 4,6\u2019da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da Bank of England\u2019\u0131n faiz indirimine emsallerine k\u0131yasla daha h\u0131zl\u0131 gitmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu faiz fark\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmek amac\u0131yla para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Sterlin opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131r\u0131lma \u00f6ncesinde uzun oynakl\u0131k (long-vol) stratejilerini daha cazip hale getiriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, 1,3650 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na geli\u015fmek ve 1,4100 hedefimize do\u011fru ilerlemek i\u00e7in yeterli zaman tan\u0131mak ad\u0131na 30-60 g\u00fcn vadeye odaklanmas\u0131 gerekir. Spot pozisyonlarda zarar-kes seviyeleri s\u0131k\u0131 tutulmal\u0131; zira 1,3660\u2019\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 1,3450\u2019deki deste\u011fe do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin dolara kar\u015f\u0131 \u015eubat\u2019tan beri zirvede: GBP\/USD 1,3650-60 direncini zorluyor. ABD\u2019de yumu\u015fak veri ve Hazine geri al\u0131m\u0131 dolar\u0131 bask\u0131larken, UK enflasyonu BoE\u2019yi \u015fahin tutuyor; k\u0131r\u0131lma 1,41 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49989,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t