Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi (DJIA) 53.050 civar\u0131nda tutunurken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri 12:30 GMT\u2019de gelmesine ra\u011fmen risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 ba\u015faramad\u0131 ve endeks 400 puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte kald\u0131. Philadelphia Fed\u2019in mevcut faaliyet endeksi a\u011fustosta 41,4\u2019ten 47,4\u2019e y\u00fckselerek 25\u2019lik piyasa beklentisini belirgin \u015fekilde a\u015ft\u0131. Haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 206 bin ile 210 bin beklentinin ve bir \u00f6nceki 212 binin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck g\u00f6stergeler daha da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti: alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k genel faaliyet 39 puan s\u0131\u00e7rayarak 73,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve A\u011fustos 1983\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck yeni sipari\u015fler 66,0, gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck sevkiyatlar 63,5 oldu. Fiyat g\u00f6stergeleri de g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck \u00f6denen fiyatlar 6 puan art\u0131\u015fla 62,9\u2019a, gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck al\u0131nan fiyatlar ise 18 puan y\u00fckseli\u015fle 59,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; her ikisi de uzun d\u00f6nem ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n\n
Hazine tahvil getirileri, \u00f6nceki seanstaki ralliyi tersine \u00e7evirerek y\u00fckseldi; 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri yeniden %5,25\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %4,70\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. Her ikisi de, uzun vadeli geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n en az iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak 2 milyar dolardan 4 milyar dolara y\u00fckseltilmesi plan\u0131na ra\u011fmen 5 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde art\u0131da. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc federal bor\u00e7 40 trilyon dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131; ilk daha b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131m\u0131n 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor. Walmart, ABD\u2019de benzer ma\u011faza sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n %2,6 artarak %3,8\u2019lik tahminin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %9 geriledi ve Dow \u00fczerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 puanl\u0131k bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Temmuz perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 %0,6 d\u00fc\u015ferken, a\u011fustosa ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 51\u2019e indi. Petrol %2 y\u00fckseldi; WTI 88,00 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda, Brent ise 93,50 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 13:45 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00f6nc\u00fc a\u011fustos PMI verilerinde imalat\u0131n 53,9\u2019dan 53,8\u2019e, hizmetlerin 54,6\u2019dan 54,0\u2019a gerilemesi bekleniyor; \u00f6nceki bile\u015fik endeks 54,5\u2019ti. Dow, 15:10 GMT sonras\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 200 puan daha geriledi. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde diren\u00e7 53.200\u2019de, ard\u0131ndan 53.500 ve 53.800 seviyelerinde; rekor seviye 54.750\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda. Destekler 53.000, ard\u0131ndan 52.750 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama (EMA) yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 52.500 seviyelerinde. Stoch RSI g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte 68 civar\u0131nda, be\u015f dakikal\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde 25 civar\u0131nda; g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 53.500 \u00fczerinde gelmesi halinde ge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme s\u00f6z konusu.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u201ciyi haber k\u00f6t\u00fc haberdir\u201d dinami\u011finin piyasaya hakim olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n defansif ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir duru\u015f benimsemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Ulusal borcun k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 40 trilyon dolar\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte, y\u00fckselen tahvil getirileri hisse de\u011ferlemelerini ciddi bi\u00e7imde iskonto ediyor. Tarihsel olarak 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirisi (\u015fu anda oldu\u011fu gibi) %4,7\u2019ye t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hisse endeksleri 2023 sonundaki %10\u2019luk d\u00fczeltmeye benzer \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi\u2019nde yak\u0131n vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklanarak kritik 53.000 destek seviyesinin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 hedeflemesi gerekir. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI \u00fcst banttan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fcyor; bu da momentumun belirgin \u015fekilde sat\u0131c\u0131lara ge\u00e7ti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Endeks 53.000\u2019in alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f yaparsa, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019ya (EMA) yak\u0131n 52.500 seviyesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n\n
Volatilite ve enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde de y\u00fcksek k\u00e2rl\u0131 f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Artan jeopolitik gerilimler nedeniyle Brent\u2019in 93,50 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve WTI\u2019\u0131n 88 dolara yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla, enerji ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 hisse d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir korunma (hedge) sunuyor. Tarihsel olarak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki kal\u0131c\u0131 enerji s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 t\u00fcketiciler \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan bir \u201cvergi\u201d etkisi yarat\u0131r; bu da Walmart gibi perakende devlerinin m\u00fc\u015fteri trafi\u011finde keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bildirmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015ea\u015f\u0131rtan ABD verileri bile Dow\u2019u kurtaramad\u0131: DJIA 53.050\u2019de tutunamad\u0131, 400+ puan ekside. Tahvil getirileri yeniden y\u00fckselirken Walmart \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131; 53.000 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 52.500\u2019e h\u0131zlanabilir. Petrol y\u00fckseli\u015fi hedge f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50049,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t