ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k bono ihalesi %3,64 seviyesinde sonu\u00e7lanarak bir \u00f6nceki ihaledeki %3,625\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu hareket, s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde getiriyi 0,015 y\u00fczde puan y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k Hazine bonolar\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli finansman ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan, vadeleri \u00e7ok k\u0131sa devlet menkul k\u0131ymetleridir ve ihalelerde olu\u015fan getiriler genellikle Fed politikas\u0131 beklentileri ile para piyasas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa ucu ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan takip eder. Son sonu\u00e7, \u00f6nceki ihaleye k\u0131yasla yak\u0131n vadeli bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son ABD 4 haftal\u0131k bono ihalesinin %3,625\u2019ten %3,64\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da A\u011fustos 2026\u2019n\u0131n sonuna yakla\u015f\u0131rken k\u0131sa vadeli dolar likiditesinin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ad\u0131m, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yaln\u0131zca bir ay gibi k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in dahi nakdi ba\u011flamak kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek getiri talep etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcileri, \u00f6zellikle en yak\u0131n vadeli SOFR vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere k\u0131sa vadeli faiz (STIR) piyasalar\u0131ndaki pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmeye y\u00f6nelmeli.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel kal\u0131plara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ultra-k\u0131sa vadeli getirilerde 1,5 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7rama bile opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Son y\u0131llarda benzer k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck faiz y\u00fckseli\u015fi d\u00f6nemlerinde, k\u0131sa vadeli implied volatilite endekslerinde nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yer de\u011fi\u015ftirmesiyle k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli olarak %12\u2019ye varan s\u0131\u00e7ramalar g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu ihale sonucunun, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman daha geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 sabit getirili piyasada volatiliteye \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck eden bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi rezervlerindeki ince de\u011fi\u015fimleri yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7in i\u015flem masalar\u0131na, getiri e\u011frisinin en k\u0131sa ucunda \u201cbear flattener\u201d stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca, gecelik bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinde ge\u00e7ici yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011finden, fiyatlama modellerimizde ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyeti (cost-of-carry) varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcncellenmesi yerinde olacakt\u0131r. Ek k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck getiri s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla, Hazine tahvillerini takip eden enstr\u00fcmanlar \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceliklendirilmesini \u00f6neririz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD 4 haftal\u0131k bono ihalesi getirisi %3,64\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti 1,5 baz puan artt\u0131. Bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck hareket, dolar likiditesinde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ve STIR\/SOFR taraf\u0131nda yeniden fiyatlama, hedge ihtiyac\u0131 sinyali.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t