ABD\u2019de ilk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131, 14 A\u011fustos ile biten haftada 206 bin oldu ve piyasa beklentisi olan 210 binin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Veri, i\u015fsizlik \u00f6dene\u011fi i\u00e7in yeni ba\u015fvurular\u0131n tahmin edilenden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ederek, k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131na dair g\u00fcncel bir g\u00f6sterge sundu.<\/p>\n\n
ABD\u2019de ilk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 206 bine gerileyerek 210 binlik beklentiyi a\u015fmas\u0131, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n son derece diren\u00e7li kalmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu s\u0131k\u0131 istihdam verisinin, Fed\u2019in yakla\u015fan Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde indirmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki acil bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, ekonominin baz\u0131 beklentilere k\u0131yasla daha yava\u015f so\u011fumas\u0131 nedeniyle faizlerin bir s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerde kalmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Sabit getirili menkul k\u0131ymet opsiyonlar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda, uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019lerinde (Treasury ETF) put opsiyonu alarak daha y\u00fcksek getiriler senaryosuna pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi halihaz\u0131rda %3,9 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, olas\u0131 bir faiz indirimi gecikmesi getirileri y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen %4,2 seviyesine yeniden ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu i\u015flem, piyasan\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentilerini yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131yla tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinden kazan\u00e7 elde etmeyi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
Hisse senedi t\u00fcrevlerinde, k\u0131sa vadeli resesyon endi\u015felerinin azalmas\u0131yla CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VIX) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim g\u00f6stermesini bekliyoruz. Azalan volatiliteden prim elde etmek i\u00e7in S&P 500 \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa seviyesinin alt\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) olan put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, haftal\u0131k ba\u015fvurular 200 bin band\u0131na yak\u0131n seyretti\u011finde, istikrarl\u0131 t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 sayesinde geni\u015f hisse piyasas\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, d\u00f6viz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in ABD Dolar Endeksi \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131na elveri\u015fli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Avrupa\u2019daki daha zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dayan\u0131kl\u0131 ABD ekonomisi, dolar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip bir varl\u0131k haline getiriyor. Bu strateji, uluslararas\u0131 sermayenin daha y\u00fcksek ABD getirileri aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla y\u00f6nelmesi s\u00fcrerken dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinden faydalanacak \u015fekilde konumlanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz veri piyasay\u0131 sallad\u0131: ABD\u2019de i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 206 binle 210 bin beklentisini ge\u00e7ti; i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc diren\u00e7li. Fed\u2019in h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz indirimi bask\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131yor; tahvil put, S&P put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, DXY call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t