ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin %5,30\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131n daha da y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131ndan, 10-30 y\u0131l vadeli segmentte likidite destekli geri al\u0131mlarda (buyback) s\u00fcrpriz bir art\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den itibaren tutar iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. Piyasalar h\u0131zla tepki verdi: 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 bp d\u00fc\u015ferek %5,18\u2019e indi, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ise %4,65\u2019e do\u011fru geriledi; dolar \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Alt\u0131n 190 dolar s\u0131\u00e7rayarak %4,35 y\u00fckseldi ve 4.500 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; hisse vadeli i\u015flemleri negatife yak\u0131n seyrederken pozitife d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Hamle, piyasadan \u201cduration\u201d\u0131n \u00e7ekilmesi olarak \u00e7er\u00e7evelendi; bunun daha fazla k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine bonosu (T-bill) ihrac\u0131yla fonlanabilece\u011fi belirtildi. Ancak bunun yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 trilyon dolara yakla\u015fan ulusal borcu veya refinansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fi de not edildi. Bir sonraki seansta ralli s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmeye ba\u015flad\u0131; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,67 (+2 bp), 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k %5,22 (+3 bp) seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc: Brent 2 dolar art\u0131\u015fla 93,60 dolara, WTI 2 dolar art\u0131\u015fla 87,80 dolara y\u00fckseldi; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD hisselerinin \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131da kapatmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen enflasyon endi\u015felerini besledi. Dow 120 puan y\u00fckseldi, S&P 500 16 puan art\u0131\u015fla 7.707\u2019den kapan\u0131rken Nasdaq 41 puan ekledi; Russell 15 puan y\u00fckseldi, Ula\u015ft\u0131rma endeksi 35 puan geriledi; e\u015fit a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 S&P 92 puan artt\u0131 ve \u201cMag 7\u201d 424 puan y\u00fckseldi. Fed tutanaklar\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7 politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n temmuzda 25 bp art\u0131\u015ftan yana oldu\u011funu ve \u201cbaz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n\u201d ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya meyletti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bilan\u00e7olarda Target, ayn\u0131 ma\u011faza sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda %3,8, trafik art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda %3,6 ve dijital sat\u0131\u015flarda yakla\u015f\u0131k %9 art\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; Walmart\u2019\u0131n 187 milyar dolar gelirle hisse ba\u015f\u0131na 0,74 dolar k\u00e2r a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Lowe\u2019s k\u00e2r tahminlerini a\u015farken gelirde beklentiyi ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131 ve sat\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti; TJX k\u00e2r tahminini yukar\u0131 revize etti. Merck ve Moderna, intismeran art\u0131 Keytruda kombinasyonunun 1.100\u2019den fazla hastay\u0131 i\u00e7eren Faz 3 melanom \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda hedefleri kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu; Moderna hisseleri %176 (111 dolar) s\u0131\u00e7rarken Merck yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 y\u00fckseldi. Avrupa borsalar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fteydi: Almanya %-0,5, \u0130spanya %-0,1. ABD vadeli i\u015flemlerinde Dow -90, S&P -2, Nasdaq +26, Russell -3 seviyeleri izlendi. Destek 7.700, trend \u00e7izgisi deste\u011fi 7.500 ve diren\u00e7 7.900\u20138.000 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Nvidia\u2019da beklentiler 92\u201394 milyar dolar gelir band\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131rken, opsiyon piyasas\u0131 195\/240 band\u0131 i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %7 ya da 15 dolarl\u0131k bir hareketi fiyatlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hazine\u2019nin 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den itibaren likidite destekli geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz \u015fekilde ikiye katlayarak devreye girdi\u011fini, bunun 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizi ge\u00e7ici olarak %4,65\u2019e so\u011futtu\u011funu ve alt\u0131n\u0131 4.500 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeni g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu yapay talep hisse senetlerinde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir rahatlama rallisini tetiklese de, 40 trilyon dolarl\u0131k ulusal bor\u00e7 ve devasa b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi tamamen de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f de\u011fil. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bu m\u00fcdahalenin ge\u00e7ici bir \u201cyara band\u0131\u201d oldu\u011funu dikkate almal\u0131; bu nedenle getirilerin yeniden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrine haz\u0131rlanmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasas\u0131 bu m\u00fcdahaleyi \u015fimdiden test ediyor; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %4,67\u2019ye do\u011fru yeniden t\u0131rman\u0131rken Brent petrol 93 dolar\/varilin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak yeni enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 riski yarat\u0131yor. Son Fed tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n, birka\u00e7 politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli faizleri daha da yukar\u0131 itmek istedi\u011fi \u015fahin bir alt tona i\u015faret etmesiyle, makro zemin y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. Getirilerde bir sonraki y\u00fckseli\u015f aya\u011f\u0131na pozisyon almak i\u00e7in faiz swaplar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 veya TLT gibi uzun vadeli Hazine ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak eyl\u00fcl, hisse senetleri i\u00e7in y\u0131l\u0131n en k\u00f6t\u00fc ay\u0131; S&P 500 1928\u2019den bu yana ortalama %1,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydediyor. Endeksin 7.707 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu mevcut tabloda, 7.700 seviyesinin yeniden test edilmesi bekleniyor; tahvil sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 s\u00fcrerse bu, 7.500\u2019deki ana trend \u00e7izgisi deste\u011fine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir kap\u0131 aralayabilir. Yakla\u015fan mevsimsel geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in S&P 500 \u00fczerinde yak\u0131n vadeli koruyucu put\u2019lar veya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak amac\u0131yla bear put spread\u2019ler de\u011ferlendirilmeli.<\/p>\n
Gelecek haftaki Nvidia bilan\u00e7osu, oynakl\u0131k i\u00e7in ana kataliz\u00f6r olacak; opsiyon piyasas\u0131 her iki y\u00f6nde de %7\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Hisse 195\u2013240 dolar gibi dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fundan z\u0131mni volatilite olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek. Bu seviyelerin d\u0131\u015f\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in uzun straddle stratejileri ya da haber sonras\u0131 prim erimesinden (premium crush) faydalanmak i\u00e7in kredi spread\u2019leri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan Moderna\u2019daki %176\u2019l\u0131k patlay\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f ve Merck\u2019teki %10\u2019luk s\u0131\u00e7rama, paran\u0131n h\u0131zla defansif sekt\u00f6rlere ve y\u00fcksek inan\u00e7l\u0131 haber ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Kalabal\u0131k teknoloji i\u015flemlerinden bu rotasyon, hisse opsiyonu stratejisini b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisselerinden uzakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p defansif de\u011fer hisselerine kayd\u0131rma gere\u011fi do\u011furuyor. Dalgal\u0131 bir eyl\u00fclde \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d i\u015flevi g\u00f6rmesi muhtemel sa\u011fl\u0131k ve temel t\u00fcketim taraf\u0131nda bull call spread uygulanmas\u0131 \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda \u201cyara band\u0131\u201d hamlesi: Hazine, 10-30 y\u0131l buyback\u2019lerini 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den itibaren ikiye katlad\u0131. Getiriler\/dolar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, alt\u0131n 4.500\u2019\u00fc a\u015ft\u0131; ancak petrol, Fed \u015fahinli\u011fi ve 40 trilyon bor\u00e7 riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50024,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t