Alt\u0131n, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n dengelenmesiyle per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD seans\u0131nda geriledi. XAU\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.457 dolarda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i zirve olan 4.527 dolardan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 geldi; bu seviye 2 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeydi. Metal, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uzun vadeli devlet tahvillerinde likiditeyi destekleyici geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce %4\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckselmi\u015fti; 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri yakla\u015f\u0131k 9 baz puan d\u00fc\u015ferek %5,18\u2019e inerken 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri de yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 baz puan gerileyerek %4,63\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu hareket, hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirinin %5,30\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 izledi; s\u00f6z konusu seviye en son 2007\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ancak per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc hem 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k hem de 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriler yakla\u015f\u0131k 6 baz puan y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131 alt\u0131 maj\u00f6r para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 takip eden ABD Dolar Endeksi \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 99,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na inerek \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 98,56\u2019ya kadar gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan 98,80 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri de destekleyici oldu: \u0130lk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 206 bin ile 210 bin beklentisinin alt\u0131nda gelirken, \u00f6nceki veri 209 binden 212 bine revize edildi. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca FED tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 da de\u011ferlendirdi; tutanaklarda %2 enflasyon hedefi hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131 ve dezenflasyonun duraksamas\u0131 halinde daha y\u00fcksek faizlerin gerekebilece\u011fi belirtildi. Enerji cephesinde de enflasyon endi\u015fesi artt\u0131: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan sevkiyat\u0131n ciddi bi\u00e7imde k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kalmas\u0131yla WTI varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 86,25 dolarda, bu hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k %6 y\u00fckseldi. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, 4.164 ve 4.380 dolardaki 50 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, 4.512 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA \u00e7evresinde dalgaland\u0131; RSI 65 civar\u0131nda, MACD histogram\u0131 pozitifti. Belirtilen seviyeler aras\u0131nda 4.650 dolarda diren\u00e7 ve 4.000 dolara kadar destek \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.512 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n (SMA) \u00fczerinde tutunmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 4.527 dolardaki son zirveden gelen ani geri \u00e7ekilme dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 4.380 dolardaki destek seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli bear put spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Bu strateji, toparlanan tahvil getirilerinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anl\u0131k bask\u0131dan faydalan\u0131rken pe\u015fin prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisi per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,69\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Tarihsel olarak Hazine\u2019nin geri al\u0131m program\u0131 gibi operasyonlar\u20142024 ortas\u0131nda h\u00fck\u00fcmet taraf\u0131ndan yeniden devreye al\u0131nan likidite destekleyici \u00f6nlemleri and\u0131ran yap\u0131s\u0131yla\u2014tahvil piyasalar\u0131na yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7ici rahatlama sa\u011flar. Bu geri al\u0131mlar, devasa kamu bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 arz\u0131n\u0131 veya kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonu ele almad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, getirilerin yeniden y\u00fckselme e\u011filimine girebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve ABD tahvil vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferli g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Haftal\u0131k ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 206 bine gerilemesiyle beklentileri a\u015fan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verisi, ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a diren\u00e7li kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u015fahin tonda FED tutanaklar\u0131yla birle\u015fince, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 98,80\u2019e toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan destek bulmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi beklenir. Bu ortam\u0131n dolar\u0131 destekleyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir pozisyon olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskler de y\u00fckseliyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki sevkiyat k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 nedeniyle West Texas Intermediate (WTI) bu hafta %6 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 86,25 dolar seviyelerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 ani arz \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6ylerini korumak amac\u0131yla petrol \u00fczerinde uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ekonomik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 90 dolar e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine kolayl\u0131kla ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumunun korunabilmesi i\u00e7in alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.512 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f yap\u0131p yapamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izlemeliyiz. Fiyat bu seviyeyi koruyamazsa, 4.380 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalamaya do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksektir. Dolar ve getiriler yeniden denge bulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n pozisyon boyutlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tutmas\u0131n\u0131 ve s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eim\u015fek etkisi: Alt\u0131n 4.527 zirvesinden 4.457\u2019ye sarkt\u0131; tahvil getirileri ve dolar dengelendi. Fed tutanaklar\u0131 \u015fahin, petrol H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskiyle 86$. Kritik: 4.512 \u00fczeri\/4.380 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50093,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53046","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t