ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi (getirisi) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yatay seyrederken, bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce 4,635% seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4,672%\u2019ye s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Bu hareket, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Treasury) s\u00fcrpriz ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan geldi. Treasury, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, 9 Eyl\u00fcl itibar\u0131yla 10-30 y\u0131l vadeli k\u0131ymetlerde likiditeyi desteklemeye y\u00f6nelik geri al\u0131m (buyback) operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; operasyon ba\u015f\u0131na tutar\u0131 2 milyar dolardan en az 4 milyar dolara y\u00fckseltece\u011fini bildirdi. S\u00f6z konusu ad\u0131m, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriyi 4,75%\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131ran y\u00fckseli\u015f serisini keserken, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine do\u011fru ilerliyordu.<\/p>\n
Program\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi, ihra\u00e7 miktar\u0131na ve dola\u015f\u0131mdaki ABD bor\u00e7 stokuna k\u0131yasla k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; ayr\u0131ca bu i\u015flemler yap\u0131sal tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131 de\u011fil, zira nihai olarak yeniden finansmanla kar\u015f\u0131lanmalar\u0131 gerekiyor. D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u015fahin Fed tutanaklar\u0131na ra\u011fmen ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131f seyrini korudu: ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,10% gerileyerek 98,70\u2019e indi ve \u00f6nceki seanstaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahvil getirileri, devam eden maliye politikas\u0131 ve enflasyon endi\u015feleriyle birlikte dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 9 Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019dan itibaren haftal\u0131k uzun vadeli tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131karma y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklenmedik karar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Bu hamle, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriyi 4,75% civar\u0131ndaki son zirvesinden ge\u00e7ici olarak 4,67%\u2019ye geriletmi\u015f olsa da, tarihsel veriler bu t\u00fcr likidite desteklerinin getirileri kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da tutmakta nadiren ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu k\u0131sa vadeli m\u00fcdahale, yap\u0131sal enflasyon ve b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmemi\u015fken yeniden artabilecek oynakl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon almak i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir pencere yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, 98,70 band\u0131na do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilen ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD ulusal borcunun 35 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve net faiz maliyetlerinin art\u0131k GSYH\u2019nin 3%\u2019\u00fcnden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketmesiyle, uzun vadeli getiriler \u00fczerindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n yeniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a muhtemel. Bu temel mali bask\u0131, Treasury\u2019nin geri al\u0131m program\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ilk heyecan s\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde hem getirileri hem de dolar\u0131 yeniden yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Faiz t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda ise, getirilerdeki bir sonraki y\u00fckseli\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in TLT gibi uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019lerinde ay\u0131 (bear) put spread stratejilerini tercih ediyoruz. 4 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir geri al\u0131m operasyonu, dola\u015f\u0131mdaki trilyonlarca dolarl\u0131k ABD borcuna k\u0131yasla g\u00f6rece k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck oldu\u011fundan, tahvil getirilerinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 4,80%\u2019in \u00fczerine k\u0131r\u0131lmaya aday oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, getirilerdeki mevcut ge\u00e7ici istikrar d\u00f6nemini, sert bir tahvil piyasas\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle koruma (hedge) kilitlemek i\u00e7in kullanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz Treasury hamlesi piyasay\u0131 sarst\u0131: uzun vadeli geri al\u0131mlar ikiye katlan\u0131yor, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 4,67%\u2019ye \u00e7ekildi. Dolar zay\u0131f; kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k \u015f\u00fcpheli. Opsiyonda DXY call, TLT\u2019de bear put spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53042","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t