Hindistan rupisi, USD\/INR\u2019nin 95,62\u2019ye do\u011fru gerilemesiyle ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rd\u0131. Bu hareket, Hazine\u2019nin uzun vadeli nominal menkul k\u0131ymetlerde geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 en az iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan uzun vadeli ABD tahvil getirilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc takip etti. ABD Dolar Endeksi, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen 98,77 seviyesindeki yedi haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyi yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyretti. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri sal\u0131 kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 d\u00fc\u015ferek 5,18 civar\u0131na inerken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriler 4,64 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131; bu seviyeler dolar\u0131n deste\u011fini azalt\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek riskli para birimlerine talebi art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hazine\u2019nin geri al\u0131m \u00fcst limiti operasyon ba\u015f\u0131na 2 milyar dolardan en az 4 milyar dolara y\u00fckseltilecek; ad\u0131m, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya y\u00f6nelik. Temmuz Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) tutanaklar\u0131, enflasyon y\u00fcksek seyrederse bir\u00e7ok yetkilinin faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na h\u00e2l\u00e2 alan g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, ancak baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n beklemeyi tercih etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. FedWatch fiyatlamas\u0131, son verilerin i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcnde 23 bin azal\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etmesi ve haziran tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilmesi ile man\u015fet ve \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyretmesi sonras\u0131 eyl\u00fclde de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc %64\u2019ten %67\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. USD\/INR 95,6350\u2019den i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 20 periyotluk EMA\u2019s\u0131 olan 95,55\u2019in \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken RSI 51,72 seviyesinde. Destekler 95,55, 95,29 ve 94,83; diren\u00e7ler ise 95,76 ard\u0131ndan 96,00.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine\u2019sinin tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 4 milyar dolara iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karma plan\u0131n\u0131n uzun vadeli getirileri so\u011futmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerinin USD\/INR paritesinde bir konsolidasyon d\u00f6nemine haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirisinin 4,64\u2019e gerilemesi ve Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 98,77 ile yedi haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rmesi, parite \u00fczerindeki k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltt\u0131. \u0130\u015flemciler, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki bu ge\u00e7ici zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli dolar k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 kurgulamay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fclde faizleri sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndaki %64\u2019ten %67\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, ABD verilerindeki so\u011fumayla destekleniyor; i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcnde 23 binlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve haziran istihdam verisinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revizyonu buna dahil. Bir sonraki toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fclen bu duraksamadan yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte temkinli olmak gerekiyor; Hindistan rupisinin y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeli, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar civar\u0131nda seyreden y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle ciddi bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Hindistan ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %80\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011finden, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ithalat\u00e7\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 dolar talebini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutacak ve rupi\u2019nin anlaml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini engelleyecektir. Bu nedenle agresif rupi uzun pozisyonlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131y\u0131z ve k\u00e2r hedeflerinin s\u0131k\u0131 tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan USD\/INR, 95,55 seviyesindeki 20 periyotluk \u00fcssel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde dalgalan\u0131yor; G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 51,72 ile n\u00f6tr b\u00f6lgede. 94,80 alt bant ve 96,00 \u00fcst bantla strangle opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi bant i\u00e7i stratejileri \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, paritenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kilit destek ve diren\u00e7 seviyeleri aras\u0131nda konsolide olmas\u0131 halinde prim toplamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rupi \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck kayb\u0131 durdurdu: ABD Hazine geri al\u0131m plan\u0131 getirileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131, USD\/INR 95,62\u2019ye indi. Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fclde pas olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %67. Teknikte 95,55 destek, 96,00 diren\u00e7; bant i\u00e7i opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t