Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Asya i\u015flemlerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 koruyarak 4.500 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda seyretti; per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc erken saatlerde haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine dokunmu\u015ftu. \u015eahin tondaki FOMC tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden gelen toparlanmayla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi k\u00e2r realizasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik ederken, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ABD tahvil getirileri de k\u00fcl\u00e7enin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. 28-29 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131na ait tutanaklar, enflasyondaki ilerleme iyile\u015fmezse Fed yetkililerinin faizlerin yak\u0131nda art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; temmuz ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son veriler ayl\u0131k bazda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na i\u015faret etse de enflasyon Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor. Piyasalar 2026\u2019da en az bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, Orta Do\u011fu ve ABD-\u0130ran gerilimine ba\u011fl\u0131 petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon riskleri de dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Washington, Tahran \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump \u201cen ezici ekonomik operasyon\u201d tehdidinde bulunurken, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 delmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olan \u00fclkelere cezalar uygulanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 konusundaki \u00e7\u0131kmaz s\u00fcrerken sava\u015f riski primi de g\u00fcndemde kal\u0131yor. ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da tahvilleri destekleyici ad\u0131m atarak eyl\u00fclden itibaren uzun vadeli bor\u00e7 geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 en az iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; bu geli\u015fme 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriyi Haziran 2007\u2019den bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek seviyeden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ve %61,8 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesinin bulundu\u011fu 4.510-4.515 dolar band\u0131nda diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131; RSI 65,17 seviyesinde ve MACD pozitif. Destekler 4.404, ard\u0131ndan 4.295 ve 4.159 dolar; yukar\u0131da hedef seviyeler 4.670 ve 4.869 dolar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
A\u011fustos 2026\u2019n\u0131n son haftalar\u0131na girerken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.500 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda konsolide olurken bant hareketine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u015eahin Fed alg\u0131s\u0131 ile Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan jeopolitik gerilimlerin birle\u015fimi, ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturuyor ve bu da alt\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.510-4.515 dolar aras\u0131ndaki kritik diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesini a\u015fmakta zorlanmas\u0131 halinde k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131n izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, \u00f6zellikle ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015fan likidite enjeksiyonu ile bor\u00e7 piyasas\u0131ndan gelen destekleyici unsurlar g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin bu eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndan itibaren uzun vadeli bor\u00e7 geri al\u0131m operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ikiye katlamaya haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131, tahvil getirileri \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir; bu da tarihsel olarak getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 destekler. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 4.404 dolardaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek seviyesine do\u011fru d\u00fczeltme geri \u00e7ekilmelerinde uzun pozisyon olu\u015fturmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekir. <\/p>\n
Son makroekonomik veriler, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon risklerinin yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor ve piyasan\u0131n Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k atfetmesini beraberinde getiriyor. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, mevcut H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 gerilimine benzer enerji krizi endi\u015feleri d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00fcvenli liman i\u015flevi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Jeopolitik man\u015fetler ve Hazine ad\u0131mlar\u0131 ya\u015fan\u0131rken beklenen sert fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n 4.500 dolar alt\u0131nda tutunuyor: \u015eahin FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tetiklerken, d\u00fc\u015fen tahvil getirileri kayb\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. \u0130ran gerilimi, Hazine al\u0131mlar\u0131 ve 4.510-4.515 direnci izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50022,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53026","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t