AUD\/JPY, zay\u0131f Avustralya istihdam raporunun ard\u0131ndan sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131 ancak hareket s\u00f6n\u00fcmlendi ve \u00e7apraz kur \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn\u00fcn haftal\u0131k dip seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Parite en son 112,75 civar\u0131nda, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa art\u0131ya ge\u00e7erek iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rd\u0131. ABS verilerine g\u00f6re i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 Temmuz\u2019da bir \u00f6nceki ayki %4,4\u2019ten %4,5\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, istihdam Haziran\u2019daki 76,3 binlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 15,8 bin azald\u0131; beklenti 15 bin art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. Zay\u0131f 2\u00c7 T\u00dcFE enflasyonuna eklenen bu veriler, RBA\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin fiyatlamalarda geri \u00e7ekilmeye yol a\u00e7arak AUD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
RBA s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentileri zay\u0131f kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; piyasan\u0131n ima etti\u011fi politika faizi patikas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde yaln\u0131zca 12 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Japonya taraf\u0131nda ise Temmuz\u2019da 634,5 milyar yenlik d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren verilerin ard\u0131ndan JPY zay\u0131flad\u0131; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler ve di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerle faiz fark\u0131 da para birimi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu unsurlar, ay\u0131n sal\u0131n\u0131m zirvesi olan 113,60\u2019tan haftal\u0131k geri \u00e7ekilme sonras\u0131nda dahi AUD\/JPY\u2019de daha derin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
\u00c7eli\u015fen ekonomik dinamiklerin \u00e7apraz kurda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutmas\u0131 nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda AUD\/JPY i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n temkinli, yatay bant (range-bound) odakl\u0131 bir strateji benimsemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Paritenin 112,75 civar\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici destek bulmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, Avustralya\u2019da i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,5\u2019e hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratan \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesi k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini ciddi bi\u00e7imde k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131yor. Zay\u0131f istihdam verisi ile enflasyondaki so\u011fuman\u0131n birlikte, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlama d\u0131\u015f\u0131na itti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta, Japon Yeni temel olarak k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor; 634,5 milyar yenlik b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n kamu borcuna ili\u015fkin s\u00fcregelen endi\u015feler pariteyi bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesinin derin a\u00e7\u0131kta seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde, k\u00fcresel piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 artsa bile Yen\u2019in kal\u0131c\u0131 ralli \u00fcretmekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu do\u011frultuda, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7apraz kurda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc engelleyerek paritenin \u015fimdilik son haftal\u0131k diplerin \u00fczerinde tutunmas\u0131na katk\u0131 verece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu makroekonomik \u00e7eki\u015fme ortam\u0131nda, 114,00 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli vade yap\u0131s\u0131nda kullan\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 satarak yatay bant opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Y\u00f6nsel pozisyon arayanlar i\u00e7inse, 112,00\u2019nin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 AUD\/JPY put spread al\u0131m\u0131 cazip bir konumlanma sunuyor. Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim, \u00f6zellikle \u00c7in talebindeki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca emtia ihracat kalemlerinin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle, k\u00fcresel r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131n tersine d\u00f6nmesi taraf\u0131ndan da destekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Zay\u0131f Avustralya istihdam\u0131 AUD\/JPY\u2019yi bask\u0131lad\u0131; RBA s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatlamas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekildi. JPY ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131yla k\u0131r\u0131lgan. Parite 112,75\u2019te tutunurken 114 diren\u00e7; 112 alt\u0131 put spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50028,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t