USD\/JPY \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,92 gerileyerek 158,00 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerine indi; bu, A\u011fustos ba\u015f\u0131ndaki m\u00fcdahaleden bu yana en sert g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olurken parite 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama (EMA) \u00fczerinde g\u00fcn\u00fc tamamlad\u0131. Hareket, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uzun vadeli tahvillerde likidite destek ama\u00e7l\u0131 geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc en az iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD uzun vadeli tahvil faizlerindeki y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimini izledi. Buna g\u00f6re 9 Eyl\u00fcl-4 Kas\u0131m d\u00f6neminde her bir operasyon 2 milyar dolardan en az 4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lacak. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 18 A\u011fustos\u2019ta %5,33\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek Haziran 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi test ettikten sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 baz puana yak\u0131n geri \u00e7ekilirken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz %4,65\u2019e do\u011fru geriledi. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n politika faizi %1,00 seviyesinde bulunurken ABD\u2019de bant %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda. \u00d6nceki m\u00fcdahale ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 tek seansta toplam 8,45 trilyon yen olurken, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile e\u015f zamanl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 5,3 trilyon yenlik ek bir tutar g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Odak \u015fimdi politika beklentileri ve yak\u0131n vadeli verilere d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) Temmuz\u2019da faizleri %1,00\u2019de sabit tuttu. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131nda Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %80\u2019in biraz alt\u0131nda seviyede; bu oran A\u011fustos\u2019un ilk haftas\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %65\u2019ti. Temmuz\u2019da toptan fiyatlar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %7,2 y\u00fckselirken, yen bazl\u0131 ithalat fiyat endeksi %29,1 artt\u0131. Yurti\u00e7i aktivite daha zay\u0131f seyretti; 2\u00c7 GSYH y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %1,1 ile %2 piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Temmuz d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri \u00c7ar\u015famba 23:50 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; 406,9 milyar yenlik \u00f6nceki a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa k\u0131yasla 680 milyar yen a\u00e7\u0131k bekleniyor. \u0130hracat\u0131n %19,3\u2019ten %19,9\u2019a, ithalat\u0131n ise %25,4\u2019ten %26,5\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ulusal enflasyon verisi Per\u015fembe 23:30 GMT\u2019de gelecek; taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7 T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %1,6\u2019dan %1,8\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken, man\u015fet ve \u00e7ekirdek i\u00e7in \u00f6nceki okuma %1,7. Teknik seviyelerde 158,50 ard\u0131ndan 159,50 diren\u00e7; 158,00 alt\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA, ard\u0131ndan 157,50 ve 156,50 destek olarak izleniyor. M\u00fcdahale dip seviyesi 155,00\u2019in hemen \u00fczerinde, Stoch RSI ise 32 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n\n
A\u011fustos 2026\u2019n\u0131n son haftalar\u0131na girerken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara USD\/JPY\u2019de alt bantlar\u0131n test edilmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Paritenin 158,00\u2019in hemen \u00fczerine gerileyerek do\u011frudan 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama (EMA) \u00fczerine oturmas\u0131, Tokyo\u2019dan do\u011frudan bir ad\u0131m yerine ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n likidite enjeksiyonlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan tetiklendi. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,65\u2019e do\u011fru gev\u015ferken, faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131 Yen\u2019i destekleyen ana unsur konumunda.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahaleleri yaln\u0131zca k\u0131sa vadeli rahatlama sa\u011fl\u0131yor; \u00f6nceki \u00e7ok trilyon yenlik operasyonlarda, kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n haftalar i\u00e7inde h\u0131zl\u0131ca geri verildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. As\u0131l belirleyici unsur ABD tahvil piyasas\u0131 oldu\u011fundan, 159,50 diren\u00e7 seviyesi alt\u0131nda kalan y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesinin, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n hedeflemesi gereken y\u00fcksek asimetrik risk-getiri profiline sahip oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 158,00\u2019deki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015fla k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, 157,50\u2019ye ve nihayetinde 156,50\u2019deki likidite b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n\n
Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum, BoJ\u2019nin yakla\u015fan Eyl\u00fcl politika karar\u0131yla daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale geliyor; swap piyasalar\u0131 ithal enflasyonla m\u00fccadele amac\u0131yla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %80 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Ancak ABD getirilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn tetikledi\u011fi daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Yen\u2019in, BoJ\u2019nin ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma motivasyonunu zay\u0131flat\u0131p zay\u0131flatmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izlemek gerekiyor. Opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan volatilitenin 155,00 seviyesindeki yap\u0131sal taban \u00e7evresinde k\u00fcmelenmesi olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu da ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de geri al\u0131m operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce, k\u0131sa vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir strateji haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY %0,92 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 158 \u00fcst\u00fcne indi; en sert g\u00fcnl\u00fck kay\u0131p. ABD Hazine\u2019nin tahvil geri al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 getirileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. G\u00f6zler BoJ Eyl\u00fcl karar\u0131, veriler; 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50091,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t