Alt\u0131n, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u015flemlerde ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) temmuz ay\u0131 toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n faizlerin sabit tutuldu\u011funu ancak \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcyenin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan yana muhalefet \u015ferhi koydu\u011funu g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseldi. XAU\/USD 4.482 dolar seviyesinde olup %3,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde art\u0131da seyretti. Tutanaklarda, muhalif \u00fcyelerin fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n genele yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde olduklar\u0131 ve FOMC\u2019nin daha k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 bir duru\u015f benimsemesi gerekti\u011fini savunduklar\u0131 belirtildi; bir\u00e7ok kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 ise enflasyon gerilemezse ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n muhtemelen gerekli olaca\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini yapt\u0131. Kay\u0131tlarda ayr\u0131ca faiz indiriminin tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
K\u00fcl\u00e7edeki hareket, ABD Hazine tahvillerinde geri al\u0131m (buyback) s\u00f6ylentileri ve getirilerde yeni bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dalgas\u0131yla ayn\u0131 zamana denk geldi. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 8 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde gerileyerek %5,20\u2019ye indi; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri de yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 baz puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle %4,660\u2019a \u00e7ekildi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,80 gerileyerek 98,85\u2019e indi. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verisi, St. Louis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Alberto Musalem\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ve S&P Global \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verilerine \u00e7evrilirken; teknik seviyelerde 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.510 dolar ile 4.500, 4.700, 4.735, 4.400, 4.324, 4.311 seviyeleri ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.158 dolar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; RSI\u2019\u0131n da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn devam\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Son Fed tutanaklar\u0131 ve alt\u0131ndaki 4.482 dolara uzanan y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemleri yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00dc\u00e7 Fed \u00fcyesinin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131 yapmas\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvillerinde geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n getirileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi nedeniyle, k\u0131sa vadede 4.500 dolardaki kritik diren\u00e7 yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Bu psikolojik bariyerin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi halinde uzun vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131na ya da alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerine y\u00f6nelmek anlaml\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n 4.500 dolar e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015farsa, bir sonraki yukar\u0131 hedefler 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) olan 4.510 dolar ve psikolojik diren\u00e7 olan 4.700 dolar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu iyimser ivme, tarihsel e\u011filimlerle de destekleniyor: Son y\u0131llarda merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n talebi y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.000 tonun \u00fczeriyle rekor seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131 ve 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin %0,80 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 98,85\u2019e gerilemesi, makro ortam\u0131n bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc patikay\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde destekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, alt\u0131n 4.500 dolar \u00fczerindeki k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 koruyamazsa pozisyonlar\u0131n put opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunmas\u0131na haz\u0131r olunmal\u0131. Sahte bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, fiyat\u0131 h\u0131zla 4.400 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na geri \u00e7ekebilir ve 4.324 dolardaki haftal\u0131k dip seviyeyi g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunda, uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 yeniden olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) olan 4.158 dolar kilit b\u00f6lge olarak hedeflenebilir.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6te yandan, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 2007\u2019den bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek seviyelerden %5,20\u2019ye 8 baz puan geriledi\u011fi i\u00e7in faiz swaplar\u0131 ve Hazine opsiyonlar\u0131 da takip edilmeli. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiride %4,660\u2019a gelen ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, piyasan\u0131n kamu geri al\u0131m m\u00fcdahalelerine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcksek hassasiyet ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve S&P Global \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019lar gibi yakla\u015fan veriler, bu getirilerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeyece\u011fini muhtemelen belirleyecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed tutanaklar\u0131 \u015fahin s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131, alt\u0131n co\u015ftu! XAU\/USD 4.482 dolara t\u0131rman\u0131rken tahvil getirileri ve DXY geriledi. 4.500-4.510 diren\u00e7; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 4.700, tutunamazsa 4.400-4.324 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49999,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53010","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t