DJIA \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 53.600 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uzun vadeli kuponlarda likidite destekli geri al\u0131m operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n azami tutar\u0131n\u0131 en az iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan endeks 230 puan\u0131n ve %0,44\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. Bakanl\u0131k, operasyon ba\u015f\u0131na tavan\u0131 2 milyar dolardan asgari 4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131karacak. Bu daha b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli operasyonlar 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ba\u015flay\u0131p 4 Kas\u0131m\u2019a kadar s\u00fcrecek ve ayn\u0131 tarihteki \u00e7eyreklik bor\u00e7lanma takviminde (quarterly refunding) yeniden de\u011ferlendirilecek; yani \u015fu ana kadar ilave tahvil al\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Buna ra\u011fmen, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %5,33\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak Haziran 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6ren 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 9 baz puandan fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,19\u2019a inerken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri de 6 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde gerileyerek %4,65 civar\u0131na geldi.<\/p>\n
Hareket, mali bask\u0131n\u0131n belirgin kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde geldi: Temmuz ay\u0131 federal b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 432,3 milyar dolar ile Mart 2021\u2019den bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck ayl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k olurken, mali y\u0131l toplam\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,8 trilyon dolara ula\u015ft\u0131; faiz gideri ise \u015fimdiden 1,1 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n Hazine tahvili stoklar\u0131 Haziran\u2019da gerilerken, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, \u00c7in ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n her biri azalt\u0131ma gitti. Ayr\u0131 olarak, FOMC Temmuz toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 18:00 GMT\u2019de yay\u0131mlayacak; \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesel Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n \u201csabit tutma\u201d karar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f \u015ferhi d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle, Eyl\u00fcl 2016\u2019dan bu yana ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde ilk \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc muhalefet g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Temmuz T\u00dcFE ise %3,4 seviyesinde. Hisse taraf\u0131nda Moderna, Merck ile y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen ileri a\u015fama cilt kanseri a\u015f\u0131 denemesinin ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %120\u2019nin \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; Merck %10 y\u00fckseldi. Home Depot ve McDonald\u2019s yakla\u015f\u0131k %1\u2019er de\u011fer kazan\u0131rken, Dow d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan Broadcom ve AMD\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k %4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. G\u00fcn\u00fcn verileri aras\u0131nda i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 209 bine kar\u015f\u0131 210 bin beklentisi, Philadelphia Fed endeksi 41,4\u2019ten 25\u2019e gerileme beklentisi, 15:10 GMT\u2019de bir b\u00f6lgesel Fed konu\u015fmas\u0131 ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 13:45 GMT\u2019de S&P Global PMI verileri yer al\u0131yor: imalat 53,9\u2019dan 53,8\u2019e, hizmet 54,6\u2019dan 54\u2019e; \u00f6nceki bile\u015fik 54,5. Teknik seviyelerde 53.700 ve 53.800 civar\u0131 diren\u00e7; 53.250, 53.200 ve 53.000 b\u00f6lgeleri destek olarak an\u0131l\u0131rken, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 52.500 civar\u0131nda, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 49.700 civar\u0131nda; Stoch RSI 72,60 ve ge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme seviyesi g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015fta 53.900 \u00fczeri olarak belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi\u2019nin 53.600 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini izliyoruz; hareketin, organik ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden ziyade Hazine\u2019den gelen s\u00fcrpriz bir likidite deste\u011fiyle yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin uzun vadeli tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131nda azami tutar\u0131 2 milyar dolardan 4 milyar dolara iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131, getirilerde sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikledi ve hisse yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bunu h\u0131zla fiyatlad\u0131. Ancak, bu daha b\u00fcy\u00fck operasyonlar\u0131n fiilen 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar ba\u015flamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not etmek gerekir; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu ani y\u00fckseli\u015f, ger\u00e7ek piyasa talebinden \u00e7ok beklenti \u00fczerine in\u015fa edilmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Bu agresif m\u00fcdahale, federal mali y\u00f6netimde daha derin bir k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor; \u00f6zellikle Kongre B\u00fct\u00e7e Ofisi\u2019nin 2026 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,8 trilyon dolara ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda. Y\u0131ll\u0131k net faiz \u00f6demeleri zaten 1,1 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine do\u011fru seyrederken, Hazine uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in yo\u011fun \u00e7aba g\u00f6steriyor. Bizce bu ad\u0131m, \u00f6zellikle Japonya ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k gibi kilit yabanc\u0131 alacakl\u0131lar\u0131n Hazine tahvili pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ortamda, uzun vadeli ABD borcuna y\u00f6nelik talebin tehlikeli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131f olabilece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
Maliye ve para politikas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki gerilim, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a oynak bir zemin yarat\u0131yor. \u015eahin b\u00f6lgesel Fed ba\u015fkanlar\u0131 enflasyonu so\u011futmak i\u00e7in faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 savunurken, Hazine ise arka kap\u0131dan finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 gev\u015fetiyor. Gelen imalat ve hizmet PMI verileri piyasan\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lgan iyimserli\u011fini test ederken, bu politika s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmesinin sert y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimlerini tetiklemesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
53.800 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi mevcut tavan\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na Dow\u2019da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filim (bearish bias) benimsemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI 72,60 ile teyit eden bir fiyat k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 olmaks\u0131z\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine uzam\u0131\u015f durumda; bu da geri \u00e7ekilmeye a\u00e7\u0131k zay\u0131f bir yap\u0131ya i\u015faret ediyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedeflerimizi 53.200 ve 53.000 seviyelerine koyarken, g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 53.900 \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi halinde s\u0131k\u0131 bir ge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme (invalidation) noktas\u0131 belirliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz Hazine hamlesi Dow\u2019u u\u00e7urdu: uzun vadeli tahvil geri al\u0131m tavan\u0131 2 milyardan 4 milyara \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Getiriler gerilerken DJIA 230 puan artt\u0131; y\u00fckseli\u015f \u015fimdilik beklentiyle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50009,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53009","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t