ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131nda likiditeyi destekleyici geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 geni\u015fletmek \u00fczere s\u00fcrpriz bir ad\u0131m atmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4,712% zirvesine dokunduktan sonra, yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda 4,651% seviyesine geriledi. Plana g\u00f6re 10-20 y\u0131l ve 20-30 y\u0131l vadelerindeki nominal kuponlu menkul k\u0131ymetlerde geri al\u0131m i\u015flemleri operasyon ba\u015f\u0131na 2 milyar dolardan en az 4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lacak; g\u00fcncellenen takvim 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u20134 Kas\u0131m d\u00f6nemini kaps\u0131yor. Ayarlama, piyasalar\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131, enflasyon ve tahvil arz\u0131 (ihra\u00e7) endi\u015felerini fiyatlamas\u0131yla uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Hareketler e\u011frinin uzun taraf\u0131nda daha belirgin olurken, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra geri \u00e7ekildi ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f 10 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011fa da yans\u0131d\u0131. Getirilerdeki gerileme ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 da bask\u0131larken, odak \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131 beklenen son Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131na ve talebin faizlerde bir sonraki y\u00f6n\u00fc belirleyebilece\u011fi 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili ihalesine kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den itibaren geri al\u0131m operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 seans ba\u015f\u0131na en az 4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131yla, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda uzun vadeli getiriler \u00fczerinde ge\u00e7ici bir tavan olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) sat\u0131n alarak tahvil fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisine pozisyonlanmas\u0131 uygun olacakt\u0131r. Hazine\u2019nin geri al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131 May\u0131s 2024\u2019te yeniden devreye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk d\u00f6nemde, artan piyasa likiditesi tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131 sert sat\u0131\u015flara kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131yla tamponlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin g\u00fcvenilir bir al\u0131c\u0131 olarak devreye girmesiyle tahvil piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 (volatilite kompresyonu) i\u015flemeyi \u00f6neriyoruz. Eyl\u00fcl-Kas\u0131m d\u00f6neminde getiri dalgalanmalar\u0131 sakinle\u015firken prim erimesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in Ultra-Bond vadeli i\u015flemlerinde vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) strangle stratejisinde opsiyon yaz\u0131labilir. Tarihsel olarak bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte hedefli likidite deste\u011fi, tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi olan ICE BofA MOVE Endeksi\u2019ni uygulamadan sonraki haftalarda %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getiriler ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n cazibesini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, f\u0131rsatlar i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131 piyasas\u0131na da bakmal\u0131y\u0131z. Euro\u2019da (EUR\/USD) veya Japon yeni\u2019nde (USD\/JPY) k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) sat\u0131n almak, dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flayan faiz avantaj\u0131ndan yararlanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem tarihsel veriler, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiride ani 10 baz puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn DXY dolar endeksinde s\u0131kl\u0131kla h\u0131zl\u0131 %1 ila %1,5\u2019lik bir gerilemeyle ili\u015fkili oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6\u011fleden sonraki 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine ihalesi ve FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u00e7evik kalmal\u0131y\u0131z. E\u011fer ihalede talep zay\u0131f kal\u0131r ve getiriler ge\u00e7ici olarak yeniden 4,7% civar\u0131na s\u0131\u00e7rarsa, bunu uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131nda daha ucuz al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) almak i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a cazip bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz. Takvim spread\u2019lerinden yararlanmak, riski y\u00f6netmemize ve a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 olu\u015fabilecek k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcs\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sermayemizi korumam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz hamle: ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 uzun vade tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 seans ba\u015f\u0131na en az 4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz 4,712%\u2019den 4,651%\u2019e indi; dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131. Odak FOMC tutanaklar\u0131, 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k ihale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t