ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) 14 A\u011fustos\u2019ta sona eren haftaya ili\u015fkin verileri, ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 4,405 milyon varil artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu art\u0131\u015f, piyasan\u0131n 0,6 milyon varillik stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Veriler, s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde stoklarda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerin \u00fczerinde bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor. Buna g\u00f6re EIA\u2019n\u0131n 14 A\u011fustos raporu, beklentilerden yakla\u015f\u0131k 5,005 milyon varil sapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 0,6 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini tamamen bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131karan 4,405 milyon varillik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve beklenmedik bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Normalde talebin y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi yaz s\u00fcr\u00fc\u015f sezonunda gelen bu s\u00fcrpriz arz fazlas\u0131, yurti\u00e7i rafineri faaliyetlerinin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, olu\u015fan k\u0131sa vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131dan faydalanmak i\u00e7in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) cephesinde k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (bearish) pozisyonlanmaya ge\u00e7mesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlara pozisyon al\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in, WTI Ekim vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli ay\u0131 put spread\u2019lerinin (bear put spread) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, y\u00fcksek ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n etkisini azalt\u0131rken, yak\u0131n vade fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n arz fazlas\u0131na uyum sa\u011flamas\u0131yla olu\u015facak hareketten k\u00e2r elde etmeyi hedefler. Tarihsel olarak, a\u011fustos ortas\u0131nda bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte beklenmedik stok art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, takip eden iki haftada referans ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda %3 ile %5 aras\u0131nda bir d\u00fczeltmeyi tetiklemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca takvim spread\u2019lerinin (calendar spread) de\u011ferlendirilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz; zira bu stok s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, yak\u0131n vade kontrat\u0131n\u0131 ileri vadeli aylara k\u0131yasla zay\u0131flatma e\u011filimindedir. ABD ham petrol \u00fcretimi g\u00fcnl\u00fck 13,4 milyon varil civar\u0131ndaki rekor seviyelere yak\u0131n seyrini korurken, rafineri kullan\u0131m oran\u0131ndaki ilave bir gerileme bu arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctecektir. Yak\u0131n vade vadeli kontratlar\u0131n sat\u0131l\u0131p ileri vadeli kontratlar\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131, piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n contango\u2019ya kaymas\u0131yla k\u00e2r elde edilmesini sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde s\u00fcrpriz alarm\u0131: EIA\u2019ya g\u00f6re ham petrol stoklar\u0131 4,405 milyon varil artt\u0131; piyasa 0,6 milyon varil d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekliyordu. Yaz sezonunda arz fazlas\u0131 WTI\u2019da ay\u0131 put spread ve takvim spread f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53000","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t