Temmuz ay\u0131 Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin tutanaklar, enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fini, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve reel GSYH\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu faizlerin sabit tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 desteklerken, bir k\u0131sm\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tercih etti; bir\u00e7ok yetkili, enflasyon gerilemezse daha y\u00fcksek faizlerin muhtemelen gerekece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve birka\u00e7 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 da hemen at\u0131lacak bir ad\u0131m\u0131n ilerideki art\u0131\u015f ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilece\u011fini savundu. Yetkililer, son bir y\u0131ldaki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 mal ve hizmetler genelinde yayg\u0131n tabanl\u0131 olarak nitelendirdi. Fed Personeli Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu enflasyon de\u011ferlendirmesini hazirana k\u0131yasla genel hatlar\u0131yla de\u011fi\u015ftirmezken, ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc bir miktar daha zay\u0131f olarak de\u011ferlendirdi. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar, yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ve hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc reel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin s\u00fcrmesini beklediklerini, ancak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle de belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n\n
Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed Fonlama faizi %3,5\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131; ancak \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesel Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2014Lorie Logan, Beth Hammack ve Neel Kashkari\u201425 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde muhalefet \u015ferhi koydu. Kevin Warsh, y\u0131lda alt\u0131 toplant\u0131ya (yakla\u015f\u0131k iki ayda bir) ge\u00e7ilebilece\u011fi ihtimalini g\u00fcndeme getirdi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n 2026 takvimi de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Tutanaklar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar Endeksi 98,90 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; \u00f6ncesinde piyasalar eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %34 olarak fiyatl\u0131yordu; bu oran \u00fc\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nce yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 seviyesindeydi. Tutanaklar 18:00 GMT\u2019de yay\u0131mland\u0131; ayr\u0131ca belirtilen teknik seviyeler DXY 99,46, 100,03 ve 100,51\u2019de SMA\u2019lar, 99,89 civar\u0131nda trend \u00e7izgisi direnci, RSI\u2019\u0131n 38 civar\u0131, 100,35\u2019te diren\u00e7 ve 98,90\u2019da destek olarak s\u0131raland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde (DXY) 98,90 ile 99,46 seviyeleri aras\u0131nda seyrederken belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f momentumu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n devlet tahvili geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 aniden ikiye katlama karar\u0131yla da peki\u015fiyor. D\u00f6viz t\u00fcrev i\u015flemleri yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerinde DXY\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon \u00f6neriyoruz; 98,90\u2019daki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek taban\u0131 hedeflenirken, zarar-kes seviyeleri 99,89 diren\u00e7 \u00e7izgisinin hemen \u00fczerine konumland\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasa \u015fu anda eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca %34 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nce %60\u2019t\u0131. Temmuzda \u015fahin \u00fc\u00e7 Fed \u00fcyesi faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kullanm\u0131\u015f olsa da, son tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporunda 23 bin ki\u015filik ani istihdam kayb\u0131, \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funu olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde %3,5\u2013%3,75 band\u0131nda faizlerin korunaca\u011f\u0131 senaryosunu yans\u0131tacak pozisyonlanman\u0131n \u015fu a\u015famada en do\u011fru hamle oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, beklenmedik istihdam kay\u0131plar\u0131 ile birlikte so\u011fuyan T\u00dcFE (CPI) verileri neredeyse her zaman merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 uzun s\u00fcreli bir duraklamaya zorlar. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte benzer politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerinde, piyasa faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn sona erdi\u011fini fark etti\u011finde Hazine tahvili getirileri h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde gerilemi\u015fti. Bu de\u011fi\u015fen anlat\u0131dan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvillerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu alman\u0131n cazip bir risk-getiri profili sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Portf\u00f6ylerimizi yakla\u015fan Jackson Hole Sempozyumu i\u00e7in de konumland\u0131rmam\u0131z gerekiyor; Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn sert bir ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme yerine politika esnekli\u011fini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 muhtemel. A\u00e7\u0131k bir y\u00f6nlendirme eksikli\u011fi, yeni veriler geldik\u00e7e d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda sert dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r. Bundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, ima edilen volatilitedeki ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz s\u0131\u00e7ramadan kazanmak amac\u0131yla Euro ve Yen\u2019de yak\u0131n vadeli straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed tutanaklar\u0131 \u015fahin sinyal verdi: Enflasyon y\u00fcksek, b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye 25 bp art\u0131\u015f istedi. Eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f ihtimali %34\u2019e indi. DXY 98,90 destek, 99,89 stop; k\u0131sa \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t