\u00c7in\u2019in temmuz ay\u0131 faaliyet verileri, 3. \u00e7eyre\u011fin ba\u015f\u0131nda ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti; ba\u015fl\u0131ca g\u00f6stergelerin \u00e7o\u011fu piyasa beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Sanayi \u00fcretimi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,5 artt\u0131 ve bu, \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ilk yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ederken, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar da tahminlerin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar ise daha h\u0131zl\u0131 tahvil ihrac\u0131 ve \u00f6ne \u00e7ekilmi\u015f altyap\u0131 harcamalar\u0131na odaklanarak, ilave mali destek \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu; \u201cpratik, kademeli\u201d \u00f6nlemlerin devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda, USD\/CNY ve offshore USD\/CNH her biri 30 pip y\u00fckselerek s\u0131ras\u0131yla 6,74 ve 6,75 seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, \u00c7in bankalar\u0131n\u0131n temmuz ay\u0131ndaki net m\u00fc\u015fteri d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 USD 25,2 mlr ile sekiz ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerileyerek yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azald\u0131; bu durum, daha \u00f6nce yuan\u0131 destekleyen \u015firket d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm (conversion) ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu deste\u011fin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla birlikte, para birimi \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcme patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin duyarl\u0131l\u0131ktaki de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale geliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, 3. \u00e7eyre\u011fin ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00c7in ekonomisindeki ivme so\u011furken \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha zay\u0131f bir Yuan senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Temmuzda sanayi \u00fcretimi art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %4,5\u2019e yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin d\u00f6viz d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm deste\u011finin kurumas\u0131yla, offshore Yuan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya olduk\u00e7a a\u00e7\u0131k. USD\/CNH al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, paritenin 6,75 seviyesinin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 halinde potansiyel yukar\u0131 hareketi yakalaman\u0131n sade bir yolunu sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, \u00c7in bankalar\u0131n\u0131n net m\u00fc\u015fteri d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde\u2014temmuzda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz gibi USD 25,2 mlr ile sekiz ay\u0131n dibine inip yar\u0131ya geriledi\u011finde\u2014para birimi en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc teknik tamponunu kaybediyor. \u00d6nceki b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flamalar\u0131nda, \u00f6rne\u011fin 2023 sonu ve 2024 ortas\u0131ndaki piyasa geri \u00e7ekilmelerinde, \u015firket d\u00f6viz d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 Yuan de\u011fer kayb\u0131na h\u0131zla kap\u0131 aralad\u0131. Pekin\u2019in bir sonraki politika hamlesi \u00f6ncesinde duyarl\u0131l\u0131kta ani bozulmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli Yuan sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n hedge ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Pekin \u00fczerindeki m\u00fcdahale bask\u0131s\u0131 artarken, yakla\u015fan politika duyurular\u0131n\u0131n hisse taraf\u0131nda sert dalgalanmalar\u0131 tetiklemesini bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, beklenen bu hareketlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in \u00c7in odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde straddle gibi uzun volatilite stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmeli. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin yakla\u015fan mali paketlerinin piyasay\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131p ta\u015f\u0131mamas\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 elde etmeyi ama\u00e7lar.<\/p>\n
Sanayi faaliyetindeki zay\u0131flama, emtia t\u00fcrevlerindeki pozisyonlar\u0131n da yeniden ayarlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Teknoloji ve gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6rleri talebi desteklemekte zorlan\u0131rken, bak\u0131r ve demir cevheri gibi end\u00fcstriyel metaller \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadede belirgin fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fuyor. Yak\u0131n vadeli bak\u0131r vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131p uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, beklenen kamu altyap\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde portf\u00f6yleri koruyabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alarm zilleri: \u00c7in\u2019in temmuz verileri 3\u00c7 ba\u015f\u0131nda ivme kayb\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u00dcretim %4,5\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131, sat\u0131\u015flar zay\u0131f. Yuan deste\u011fi eriyor; USD\/CNH 6,75\u2019e. Opsiyon\/volatilite hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50161,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t