EUR\/USD, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 10-20 y\u0131l ve 20-30 y\u0131l vadeli nominal kuponlu tahvillerde likidite destekli geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 en az iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Her bir operasyonun azami b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2 milyar dolardan en az 4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lacak; bu da uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 iterken getirileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Parite 1,1653 civar\u0131nda, %0,68 art\u0131da i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken; ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99 seviyesinde, %0,65 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte ve 1 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyindeydi. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %5,30\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k 9 baz puan gerileyerek %5,20 civar\u0131na indi.<\/p>\n
Son d\u00f6nemde ABD verilerinin yumu\u015famas\u0131yla faiz beklentileri de de\u011fi\u015fti; odak, Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi\u2019nin (FOMC) Temmuz toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ise piyasalar, ECB\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde pozisyonlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Nihai Temmuz HICP verisi man\u015fet enflasyonun ayl\u0131k bazda %0,2 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,5 olarak teyit edildi. Euro, AB\u2019de 20 \u00fclke taraf\u0131ndan kullan\u0131l\u0131yor; 2022\u2019de d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 i\u015flem hacminin %31\u2019ini olu\u015fturdu ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 2,2 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde hacme ula\u015ft\u0131. EUR\/USD i\u015flemlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019unu temsil ederken, bunu %4 ile EUR\/JPY, %3 ile EUR\/GBP ve %2 ile EUR\/AUD izliyor. ECB Y\u00f6netim Konseyi y\u0131lda sekiz kez toplan\u0131yor ve en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6rt ekonomi Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fcretiminin %75\u2019ini olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n agresif tahvil geri al\u0131m plan\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle EUR\/USD paritesinin 1,1653\u2019e t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda belirgin bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Likidite destekli geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n operasyon ba\u015f\u0131na en az 4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizi %5,20\u2019ye \u00e7ekerken Dolar\u2019\u0131 da zay\u0131flatt\u0131. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, 99\u2019a gerileyen ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ndeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla bu momentumu de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda bu Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir beklenti olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, euro\u2019nun getiri cazibesi art\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan ABD\u2019de zay\u0131flayan ekonomik veriler, piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 Fed\u2019in ilave faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri azaltmaya itti. Para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in uzun EUR\/USD vadeli i\u015flem (futures) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir strateji haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca yakla\u015fan FOMC toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde piyasa volatiliteyi fiyatlarken, maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ad\u0131na bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spreads) de de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Tarihsel olarak EUR\/USD, g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 7,5 trilyon dolarl\u0131k k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131n kabaca %30\u2019unu olu\u015fturarak karma\u015f\u0131k opsiyon stratejileri i\u00e7in derin likidite sa\u011flar. \u0130\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, Fed\u2019den gelebilecek beklenmedik \u015fahin s\u00fcrprizlere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak \u00fczere 1,1580 destek seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri belirlemesi \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar\u2019da sert zay\u0131fl\u0131k kap\u0131da m\u0131? ABD Hazinesi\u2019nin tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 ikiye katlamas\u0131 EUR\/USD\u2019yi 1,1653\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; DXY 99\u2019a indi, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz %5,20\u2019ye geriledi. ECB Eyl\u00fcl s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52997","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t