Alt\u0131n, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve uzun vadeli ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerindeki sert geri \u00e7ekilmenin metalin \u00f6nceki seanstaki kayb\u0131n\u0131 telafi etmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmas\u0131yla \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi. XAU\/USD 4.458 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %2,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015f kaydetti. ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, daha uzun vadeli devlet tahvilleri i\u00e7in likidite destekleyici geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n (buyback) b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmesinin ard\u0131ndan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 5 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ferken, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri yakla\u015f\u0131k 9 baz puan geriledi. Bu arada ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti; %0,64 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Odak, Fed\u2019in (Federal Reserve) faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131n izlenece\u011fi, Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131na ait Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) tutanaklar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi; tutanaklar\u0131n 18:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re, o toplant\u0131dan bu yana gelen daha yumu\u015fak istihdam piyasas\u0131 ve enflasyon verileri Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima\u00ee olarak %32\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 4.381 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; RSI 63 seviyesinde, MACD histogram\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Diren\u00e7, \u00fcst Bollinger band\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 4.528 dolar civar\u0131nda bulunurken; destek seviyeleri 4.381 dolar, 4.222 dolar civar\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 4.000 dolar ve 3.916 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131nda izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.528 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesini hedefledi\u011fi mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumunda t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu trende a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Metalin %2,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 4.458 dolar civar\u0131na t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak veya bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) kurmak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir risk-getiri oran\u0131 sunuyor. Bu yukar\u0131 hareket, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 99 civar\u0131nda \u00e7ok ayl\u0131 dip seviyeye gerilemesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde destekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak FOMC Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131yla birlikte k\u0131sa vadeli volatilitenin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca %32 d\u00fczeyinde fiyatlamas\u0131 nedeniyle, ani fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in uzun straddle stratejilerinin de\u011ferlendirilmesi uygun olabilir. Tarihsel olarak Fed politika beklentilerindeki ani de\u011fi\u015fimler, getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klarda h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan volatilite bazl\u0131 stratejileri olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Gelir odakl\u0131 stratejiler i\u00e7in, 4.381 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na put opsiyonu yaz\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu taban, k\u00fcresel resm\u00ee sekt\u00f6rlerin dolardan \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme amac\u0131yla son y\u0131llarda her y\u0131l d\u00fczenli olarak 1.000 metrik tonun \u00fczerinde alt\u0131n sat\u0131n almas\u0131yla gelen y\u00fcksek merkez bankas\u0131 talebi taraf\u0131ndan da destekleniyor. Ge\u00e7ici bir geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6rsek bile, bu yap\u0131sal al\u0131m, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 4.222 dolardaki Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
35 trilyon dolar e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015farak artmaya devam eden ABD ulusal borcunu da izlememiz gerekiyor; bu durum de\u011fer erozyonu (debasement) endi\u015felerini besliyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik gerilimler, enflasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u00fcrekli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk yarat\u0131yor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla olas\u0131 ani enerji \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tekrar k\u0131ymetli metallere y\u00f6nlendirmesi muhtemel. Bu nedenle, uzun vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc diyagonal spread pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 aktif tutmak, daha geni\u015f makroekonomik r\u00fczg\u00e2rlardan faydalanmam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz ralli: Dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131, uzun tahvil getirileri sert geriledi; XAU\/USD %2,5 art\u0131\u015fla 4.458\u2019de. G\u00f6zler FOMC tutanaklar\u0131nda; 4.528 diren\u00e7. Opsiyonda call, straddle, put yazma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50174,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t