\u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131, temmuz ay\u0131 Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fer kazand\u0131. USD\/CHF sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc 0,8130 seviyesinden 0,8100\u2019a do\u011fru geriledi, ancak a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndaki 0,8040 civar\u0131ndaki dip seviyenin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Avrupa seans\u0131ndaki fiyat hareketleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yd\u0131; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 hafif bir riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f havas\u0131 etkili olurken, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 da dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Tutanaklar\u0131n ABD seans\u0131nda yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu yay\u0131mlanma, Federal Rezerv\u2019in faizleri sabit tuttu\u011fu, komite i\u00e7inde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir toplant\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geliyor. FOMC, ekonomik ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmek, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n duru\u015funu belirlemek ve uzun vadeli fiyat istikrar\u0131 ile s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflerine y\u00f6nelik riskleri de\u011ferlendirmek \u00fczere y\u0131lda 8 toplant\u0131 yap\u0131yor. Tutanaklar, karar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 hafta sonras\u0131nda Guvern\u00f6rler Kurulu taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlan\u0131yor ve piyasalar oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ile politika sinyallerini anlamak i\u00e7in metni didikliyor; metin yay\u0131mlanmadan \u00f6nce haber kurulu\u015flar\u0131na da\u011f\u0131t\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan tepkiler gecikmeli olabiliyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CHF paritesinin kritik 0,8100 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda tutundu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131nda orta d\u00fczey bir de\u011ferlenmeye i\u015faret ediyor. Parite, a\u011fustos ay\u0131 taban\u0131 olan 0,8040\u2019\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma stratejilerine haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Bu destek seviyesinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 dip seviyelere do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Temmuz FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 bug\u00fcn yay\u0131mlanaca\u011f\u0131ndan, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ani bir s\u0131\u00e7rama bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak Fed\u2019in net bir ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme vermeden piyasay\u0131 belirsizlikte b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde, tutanaklar sonras\u0131 tepki gecikmeli ancak olduk\u00e7a sert olabiliyor. FX opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, nihai y\u00f6n ne olursa olsun beklenen oynakl\u0131k geni\u015flemesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilimler genellikle g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 desteklese de, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131n savunmac\u0131 cazibesi \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) m\u00fcdahale sinyalleri ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck politika faizi nedeniyle zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f durumda. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda SNB faizi %1,00 seviyesinde sabitlenmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrken, ABD\u2019ye k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir getiri sunuyor. Bu faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n frang\u0131n uzun vadeli kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu nedenle CHF rallilerini USD\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in uygun f\u0131rsatlar olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar gelecekte Fed faiz indirimlerini fiyatlarken bile, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131na s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Son ekonomik veriler, ABD enflasyonunun %2,5\u2019e do\u011fru so\u011fudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; bu, Fed\u2019i kademeli gev\u015feme patikas\u0131nda tutarken \u015fahin s\u00fcrprizlere de kap\u0131 aral\u0131yor. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc tutanaklarda beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde agresif tonlar \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 riskine kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, net bir trend olu\u015fmad\u0131k\u00e7a 0,8040\u20130,8200 band\u0131nda yatay piyasa stratejilerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k d\u00f6nemlerinde prim toplamak i\u00e7in iron condor stratejilerini kullanabilir. Ancak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada olas\u0131 ani de\u011fi\u015fimlerin bu d\u00f6viz dinamiklerini h\u0131zla d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrebilece\u011fini g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak \u00e7evik kalmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131, CHF g\u00fc\u00e7lendi: USD\/CHF 0,8130\u2019dan 0,8100\u2019a indi; g\u00f6zler 0,8040 deste\u011finde. Jeopolitik risk ve petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52988","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t