Hindistan rupisi, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; USD\/INR yakla\u015f\u0131k iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n 95,75 civar\u0131nda kal\u0131rken son i\u015flemler 95,76\u2019dan ge\u00e7ti. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretmesi bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131nda, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik herhangi bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmenin devam etmemesi de bu tabloyu destekledi. G\u00fcn\u00fcn erken saatlerinde, 19 A\u011fustos vadeli MCX Ham Petrol kontrat\u0131 %0,6 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 8.130 rupi seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n zirvesi 8.170 rupi civar\u0131nda seyretti. Bu arka plan, ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 para birimleri \u00fczerinde genellikle bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI), FCNR(B) mevduatlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik imtiyazl\u0131 d\u00f6viz swap imkan\u0131n\u0131 planlanandan bir ay \u00f6nce, 31 A\u011fustos\u2019ta kapataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bankalar 13 A\u011fustos itibar\u0131yla bu kanal \u00fczerinden 52,3 milyar dolar mevduat \u00e7ekti. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 ayr\u0131ca RBI\u2019nin spot ve NDF piyasalar\u0131ndaki faaliyetlerinde kald\u0131. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan USD\/INR, 20 d\u00f6nemlik EMA\u2019n\u0131n (95,58) ve %38,2 Fibonacci seviyesinin (95,63) \u00fczerinde tutunurken RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 54 seviyesinde. Diren\u00e7ler 95,87 ve 96,12; ard\u0131ndan 96,46 ve 96,90 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Destekler ise 95,63, 95,58 ve 95,33 seviyelerinde izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmenin petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n Hindistan rupisi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019ten fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etmesi, k\u00fcresel enerji maliyetlerindeki kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin tarihsel olarak rupiyi yeni dip seviyelere itmesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Paritenin 95,58 \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc teknik destek olu\u015fturmu\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, 96,12 ve 96,46 diren\u00e7lerini hedefleyen USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol piyasalar\u0131, k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki gerilimin yat\u0131\u015fma i\u015fareti g\u00f6stermemesiyle y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. Mevcut 8.130 rupi seviyesine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 potansiyeli yakalamak i\u00e7in MCX ham petrol kontratlar\u0131nda bull call spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, 2019\u2019daki sevkiyat aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 gibi benzer jeopolitik darbo\u011faz d\u00f6nemlerinde petrol risk primleri haftalar i\u00e7inde %10 ila %15 y\u00fckselmi\u015fti; benzer bir tekrar g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n imtiyazl\u0131 dolar swap penceresini 31 A\u011fustos\u2019ta kapatma y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki ani karar\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede rupi likiditesini muhtemelen de\u011fi\u015ftirecek. Yerel bankalar\u0131n bu imkan \u00fczerinden 52 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kaynak \u00e7ekmi\u015f olmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, erken kapan\u0131\u015f son d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc likidite art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131nda sona erece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, eyl\u00fclde k\u0131sa vadeli para piyasas\u0131 faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesine kar\u015f\u0131 gecelik endeksli swaplarda (OIS) pay (sabit \u00f6deyen) pozisyonlara girerek haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte para birimini korumak i\u00e7in milyarlarca dolar harcam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n yo\u011fun m\u00fcdahaleleri izlenmeli. 670 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u00f6viz rezervleri, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lara rupinin 96,00 \u00fczerindeki kontrols\u00fcz de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 savunma i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir alan sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, \u00e7\u0131plak (hedgesiz) uzun USD\/INR vadeli i\u015flemlerinden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmal\u0131; ani, merkez bankas\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 opsiyon stratejileri tercih edilmeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrol ate\u015fi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fi rupiyi zorluyor: USD\/INR 95,75\u2019te dipte. RBI FCNR swap\u0131n\u0131 erken kapat\u0131yor. Diren\u00e7 96,12-96,46. Strateji: call, petrol bull spread, OIS sabit \u00f6de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52976","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t