Alt\u0131n ve Makro Piyasa G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, Avrupa seans\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri vererek 4.450 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki yeniden ba\u015flayan sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen. Piyasalar, FOMC Tutanaklar\u0131 (Minutes) \u00f6ncesinde pozisyon al\u0131rken, ham petrol\u00fcn H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki ABD-\u0130ran restle\u015fmesi nedeniyle yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n zirvesine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. ABD\u2019nin uzun vadeli faizleri de g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi Haziran 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. CME Group\u2019un FedWatch arac\u0131, y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %68 olarak fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken; ABD Dolar endeksinin (DXY) 99,40\u2019dan toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
XAU\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i band\u0131n\u0131n alt b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne yak\u0131n seyrederken, Nisan\u2013Haziran d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn %50 geri \u00e7ekilme seviyesini a\u015fmakta zorland\u0131 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n da belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131: MACD s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de sinyal \u00e7izgisine do\u011fru gev\u015fedi, RSI ise 59,24\u2019te tutundu. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 4.406 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.509 dolar ve 4.519,36 dolar olarak i\u015faretlendi; destekler ise 4.292 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.152 dolar ve daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 3.925 dolar civar\u0131nda bir taban olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n t\u00fcrev i\u015flemleri yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n temkinli ilerlemesini ve metalin 4.450 dolar e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131nda zorlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n 4.509 dolarda bulunmas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tavan olu\u015fturdu\u011fundan, koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak ak\u0131ll\u0131ca bir hamle olabilir. Alt\u0131n bu direnci yeniden kazanamazsa, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 4.292 dolardaki kritik destek seviyesine do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki s\u00fcregelen ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131kta tutarken, ham petrol t\u00fcrevlerinde uzun pozisyonlara odaklanmak gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, bu stratejik nakliye hatt\u0131ndaki sert gerilimler b\u00fcy\u00fck arz endi\u015felerini tetikleyerek Brent petrol\u00fc yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolara do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, jeopolitik tansiyonun beklenmedik \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fmesi halinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, ilave yukar\u0131 potansiyeli yakalamak i\u00e7in ham petrol call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanabilir.<\/p>\n
30 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvil faizinin %5,1\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 2007 yaz\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. Bu s\u0131\u00e7rama, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n da destekledi\u011fi kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131 ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %68\u2019e fiyatlanmas\u0131yla besleniyor. Bu ortamdan faydalanmak i\u00e7in Hazine vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon veya faiz swaplar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalacak faizler, getiri \u00fcretmeyen varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, ABD Dolar Endeksi 99,40\u2019taki kritik destek taban\u0131ndan tepki vererek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k sergiledi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7in maj\u00f6r para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda uzun dolar kontratlar\u0131yla i\u015flem yapman\u0131n olduk\u00e7a uygulanabilir bir strateji oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. Y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen tahvil getirileri, \u015fimdilik dolar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u015fekilde zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyen \u00e7ift motor g\u00f6revi g\u00f6recek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi tansiyon y\u00fckseliyor: Alt\u0131n 4.450 alt\u0131nda zorlan\u0131rken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi petrol\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD faizi 2007 zirvesinde, DXY toparlan\u0131yor; Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %68. Strateji: alt\u0131n short\/put, petrolde long\/call.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50139,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t