Alt\u0131n, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 4.335 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve k\u00fcresel tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fckselmesiyle getirisi olmayan bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyeti artarken, haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 4.450 dolara yak\u0131n zirveden geri \u00e7ekilmesinin ard\u0131ndan dengelendi. ABD 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine t\u0131rman\u0131rken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti de Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) eyl\u00fcl gibi erken bir tarihte faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisiyle 30 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Avrupa\u2019da Almanya\u2019n\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bund getirisi 2011\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Fransa tahvil getirileri 2008\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde seyretti.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f de k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde ek bir bask\u0131 unsuru yaratt\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin belirsizlikler enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131rken; CNN\u2019e g\u00f6re Donald Trump Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc, \u0130ran\u2019la herhangi bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmenin y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmedi\u011fini veya planlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. MarineTraffic verileri ise H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ile Bab el-Mendeb\u2019den ge\u00e7en ticari trafi\u011fin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. ABD\u2019de enflasyonun yumu\u015famas\u0131 ve perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n zay\u0131f gelmesi faiz beklentilerini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi; piyasalar eyl\u00fclde 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamaktan, faizin sabit kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 65\u2019e yak\u0131n bir seviyeye ta\u015f\u0131maya y\u00f6neldi. Bu durum USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturup XAU\/USD\u2019yi destekleyebilir. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, 4.385 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken 4.210 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; RSI (14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 58 seviyesinde. Diren\u00e7 4.500 dolar civar\u0131nda izlenirken, destek 3.915 dolar civar\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n\u0131n (XAU\/USD) 4.335 dolar civar\u0131nda konsolide oldu\u011fu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara temkinli ve bant aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na dayal\u0131 bir strateji benimsemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Alt\u0131n, haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 4.450 dolarl\u0131k zirveden geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fi i\u00e7in, 4.385 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) yak\u0131nlar\u0131na do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015flerde sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 aranmal\u0131. Bu yak\u0131n diren\u00e7, k\u00fcresel tahvil getirilerindeki s\u0131\u00e7ramayla da destekleniyor; bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemler tarihsel olarak getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131n cazibesini azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasalar\u0131ndan gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez. ABD 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi son d\u00f6nemde 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %5,11 civar\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri sert y\u00fckseldi\u011finde\u20142023\u2019\u00fcn sonlar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck tahvil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi\u2014alt\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede ciddi r\u00fczg\u00e2rla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131r. Bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelinden faydalanmak ad\u0131na, \u00f6zellikle Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirisi 1,1% civar\u0131nda \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirvelere yakla\u015f\u0131rken, ay\u0131 (bear) call spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer taraftan, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki jeopolitik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmenin enflasyon endi\u015felerini canl\u0131 tuttu\u011funu da kabul etmek gerekir. Bu gerilim, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n artan fiyatlara kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan korunma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban i\u015flevi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Ani jeopolitik s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, yak\u0131n vadeli uzun call pozisyonlar\u0131yla e\u015fle\u015ftirilmi\u015f koruyucu uzun put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n elde tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (Fed) ili\u015fkin beklentilerdeki de\u011fi\u015fimle de \u015fekilleniyor. Piyasalar art\u0131k eyl\u00fclde faizin sabit kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Enflasyon yava\u015flamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse, zay\u0131flayan ABD Dolar\u0131 4.500 dolardaki \u00fcst Bollinger band\u0131na do\u011fru d\u00fczeltme niteli\u011finde bir toparlanmay\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu senaryoda, \u201ckumdaki \u00e7izgi\u201d olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 4.210 dolardaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Bollinger orta band\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenerek pozisyon al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n
4.210 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, 3.915 dolara yak\u0131n alt Bollinger band\u0131na do\u011fru daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali verece\u011finden, k\u0131sa put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 riskli hale getirebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, agresif bi\u00e7imde uzun (long) a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flemler stratejisine d\u00f6nmek i\u00e7in 4.385 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde net bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m gerekiyor. \u015eimdilik, haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n verdi\u011fi bu dar bantta getiri hedeflemek \u00fczere iron condor gibi volatilite odakl\u0131 stratejilere odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda kritik denge: XAU\/USD 4.335\u2019te yatay. K\u00fcresel tahvil getirilerindeki s\u0131\u00e7rama ve petrol y\u00fckseli\u015fi bask\u0131 kuruyor; jeopolitik risk taban sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Kritik seviyeler 4.385\/4.210\/3.915; Fed beklentisi izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50132,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52970","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t