ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, sosyal medya platformundaki bir payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile herhangi bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme ya da konu\u015fman\u0131n y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmedi\u011fini veya planlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n tam kapsam\u0131yla y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte oldu\u011funu ekleyen Trump, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k ve i\u015fler durumda oldu\u011funu; ayr\u0131ca t\u00fcm deniz may\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ya da imha edildi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131 olarak Politico, Trump y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki ekonomik bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. El Cezire ise bir ABD\u2019li yetkiliye dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde, Beyaz Saray\u2019\u0131n Tahran\u2019la m\u00fczakerelere ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda bir \u00e7eli\u015fki g\u00f6rmedi\u011fini ve olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fini aktar\u0131rken, Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran \u201canla\u015fma yapmaya haz\u0131r olana kadar\u201d beklemeyi tercih etti\u011fini de bildirdi.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcren deniz ablukas\u0131 nedeniyle k\u00fcresel enerji piyasalar\u0131nda belirgin bir jeopolitik risk priminin olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol\u00fc\u2014k\u00fcresel s\u0131v\u0131 petrol t\u00fcketiminin neredeyse %20\u2019sini\u2014ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ani bir s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme tedarik zincirlerini ciddi bi\u00e7imde sekteye u\u011fratabilir. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Brent ve WTI kontratlar\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlikten yararlanmak i\u00e7in, ani bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) Brent ham petrol al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k, sert deniz gerilimlerinin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde tarihsel olarak %25 ila %40 artma e\u011filiminde olup, bu durum opsiyon primlerini h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 \u00e7eker. Uzun straddle stratejisinin uygulanmas\u0131 da olduk\u00e7a uygun bir se\u00e7enek; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc sonu\u00e7 ister t\u0131rmanma ister s\u00fcrpriz bir diplomatik at\u0131l\u0131m olsun, her iki y\u00f6nde sert hareketlerden k\u00e2r etme potansiyeli sunar.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel veriler, 2019\u2019daki tanker olaylar\u0131 gibi bu b\u00f6lgede sevkiyata y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6rece k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tehditlerin bile ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00fcn i\u00e7i %4 ila %5\u2019lik ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetikleyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. ABD\u2019nin ekonomik bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken yak\u0131n vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri d\u0131\u015flamas\u0131, misilleme niteli\u011finde bir olay riskini ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Daha geni\u015f portf\u00f6yleri ani riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk-off) \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n ve VIX endeksi \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesine de bakmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: Trump \u0130ran\u2019la g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme yok derken deniz ablukas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131k. Jeopolitik risk primi y\u00fckseliyor; Brent\/WTI\u2019da volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in OTM call, long straddle; alt\u0131n\/VIX call \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50007,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t